Related papers: The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant t…
Data from three solar observatories, Learmonth, Holloman, and San Vito, are used to study the variations in the average number of sunspots per sunspot group. It is found that the different types of sunspot groups and the number of sunspots…
A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…
We analysed the combined data of sunspot groups from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977-2017 and determined the monthly mean, annual mean, and 13-month…
The minimum - maximum method, belonging to the precursor class of the solar activity forecasting methods, is based on a linear relationship between relative sunspot number in the minimum and maximum epochs of solar cycles. In the present…
We analysed the sunspot group data from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977-2017 and studied the cycle-to-cycle variations in the values of 13-month smoothed…
We study, by using a wavelet decomposition methodology, the solar signature on global surface temperature data using the ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite by Willson and Mordvinov. These data present a +0.047%/decade trend…
We could infer a secular decreasing trend in the poloidal to toroidal solar magnetic flux amplification factor ( Af) using geomagnetic observations ( classic and IHV corrected aa indices) during the sunspot cycles 9-23. A similar decreasing…
The aim of this work is to create a long (410 years) series of average annual total sunspot areas AR - physically-based index of sunspot activity. We used telescopic observations of the AR index in 1832-1868 and 1875-2020, as well as the…
A simple 3-parameter random walk model for monthly fluctuations $\triangle T$ of a temperature $T$ is introduced. Applied to a time range of 170 years, temperature fluctuations of the model produce for about 14\% of the runs warming that…
The average tilt angle of sunspot groups emerging throughout the solar cycle determines the net magnetic flux crossing the equator, which is correlated with the strength of the subsequent cycle. I suggest that a deep-seated, non-local…
There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…
As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state of the art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with…
We investigate the variation in the mode parameters obtained from time series of length 9, 36, 72 and 108 days to understand the changes occurring on different time-scales. The regression analysis between frequency shifts and activity…
We test recent claims that the polar field at the end of Cycle 23 was weakened by a small number of large, abnormally oriented regions, and investigate what this means for solar cycle prediction. We isolate the contribution of individual…
The Schwabe (~11 yr) value for the annual sunspot number is sometimes uncritically applied to other measures of solar activity, direct and indirect, including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the inflow of galactic cosmic rays, solar flare…
Solar activity seems quite understandable when considered on the scales comparable with a solar cycle, i.e. about 11 years, and on a short time scale of about a year. A solar cycle looks basically (anti)symmetric with respect to the solar…
The hydrologic cycle has wide impacts on the ocean salinity and circulation, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and the ecosystem. Under anthropogenic global warming, previous studies showed that the intensification of the hydrologic cycle is a…
The oscillations of climatic parameters of North Atlantic Ocean play important role in various events in North America and Europe. Several climatic indices are associated with these oscillations. The long term Atlantic temperature anomalies…
A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in…