Related papers: Scaling Behavior of Threshold Epidemics
We introduce a kinetic framework for modeling the time evolution of the statistical distributions of the population densities in the three compartments of susceptible, infectious, and recovered individuals, under epidemic spreading driven…
We study the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent forcing using analytic techniques which allow us to disentangle the interaction of stochasticity and external forcing. The model is formulated as a…
With the premise that social interactions are described by power-law distributions, we study a SIR stochastic dynamic on a static scale-free random network generated via configuration model. We verify our model with respect to deterministic…
In this paper we study a susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model with asymptomatic patients, contact tracing and isolation on a configuration network. Using degree based approximation, we derive a system of differential equations for…
The SIRS process is a continuous-time process for how infections spread on a graph. In this model, each vertex is in one of the following three states: susceptible (to the infection; S), infected (I), or recovered (R) and thus immune to the…
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
The SIR model is used extensively in the field of epidemiology, in particular, for the analysis of communal diseases. One problem with SIR and other existing models is that they are tailored to random or Erdos type networks since they do…
We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold…
We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…
One of the most effective strategies to mitigate the global spreading of a pandemic (e.g., COVID-19) is to shut down international airports. From a network theory perspective, this is since international airports and flights, essentially…
A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…
Consider a large uniformly mixing dynamic population, which has constant birth rate and exponentially distributed lifetimes, with mean population size $n$. A Markovian SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) infectious disease,…
We study Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SEAIR) epidemic spreading model of COVID-19. It captures two important characteristics of the infectiousness of COVID-19: delayed start and its appearance before onset of…
Epidemic threshold is one of the most important features of the epidemic dynamics. Through a lot of numerical simulations in classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) models on various types of…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
A model for epidemics on an adaptive network is considered. Nodes follow an SIRS (susceptible-infective-recovered-susceptible) pattern. Connections are rewired to break links from non-infected nodes to infected nodes and are reformed to…
The outcome of SIR epidemics with heterogeneous infective lifetimes, or heterogeneous susceptibilities, can be mapped onto a directed percolation process on the underlying contact network. In this paper we study SIR models where…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…