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We propose the approximate Laplace approximation (ALA) to evaluate integrated likelihoods, a bottleneck in Bayesian model selection. The Laplace approximation (LA) is a popular tool that speeds up such computation and equips strong model…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-07 David Rossell , Oriol Abril , Anirban Bhattacharya

Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-27 Patrick Conrad , Andrew Davis , Youssef Marzouk , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling from a posterior distribution corresponding to a massive data set can be computationally prohibitive since producing one sample requires a number of operations that is linear in the data size. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-03 Reihaneh Entezari , Radu V. Craiu , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) is a well-known and popular technique for spatial modeling with a user-friendly interface in the R-INLA package. Unfortunately, only a certain class of latent Gaussian models are amenable…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-19 Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman , Jon Wakefield

The linearized-Laplace approximation (LLA) has been shown to be effective and efficient in constructing Bayesian neural networks. It is theoretically compelling since it can be seen as a Gaussian process posterior with the mean function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Agustinus Kristiadi , Alexander Immer , Runa Eschenhagen , Vincent Fortuin

The Linearized Laplace Approximation (LLA) has been recently used to perform uncertainty estimation on the predictions of pre-trained deep neural networks (DNNs). However, its widespread application is hindered by significant computational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Luis A. Ortega , Simón Rodríguez Santana , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Spatio-temporal point process models play a central role in the analysis of spatially distributed systems in several disciplines. Yet, scalable inference remains computa- tionally challenging both due to the high resolution modelling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-07 Botond Cseke , Andrew Zammit Mangion , Tom Heskes , Guido Sanguinetti

Inference for spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) for high-dimensional non-Gaussian spatial data is computationally intensive. The computational challenge is due to the high-dimensional random effects and because Markov chain…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-09 Yawen Guan , Murali Haran

The Log-Gaussian Cox Process is a commonly used model for the analysis of spatial point patterns. Fitting this model is difficult because of its doubly-stochastic property, i.e., it is an hierarchical combination of a Poisson process at the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-05 Ming Teng , Farouk S. Nathoo , Timothy D. Johnson

We review three algorithms for Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Two of them are variational inference algorithms: Variational Bayesian inference and Online Variational Bayesian inference and one is Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-07-02 Jaka Špeh , Andrej Muhič , Jan Rupnik

The INLA approach for approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models has been shown to give fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals and also to be a valuable tool in practice via the R-package R-INLA. In this paper we…

Computation · Statistics 2013-02-21 Thiago G. Martins , Daniel Simpson , Finn Lindgren , Håvard Rue

Bayesian inference on non-Gaussian data is often non-analytic and requires computationally expensive approximations such as sampling or variational inference. We propose an approximate inference framework primarily designed to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Marius Hobbhahn , Philipp Hennig

Posterior inference for Dirichlet process mixture models is analytically intractable and typically relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, which can become computationally prohibitive at moderate to large sample sizes. In this work, we…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-29 Beatrice Franzolini , Francesco Pozza

This study introduces a computationally efficient algorithm, delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC), designed to improve posterior simulation in quasi-Bayesian inference. Quasi-Bayesian methods, which do not require fully…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-16 Masahiro Tanaka

We consider probabilistic model checking for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) induced from Stochastic Reaction Networks (SRNs) against a fragment of Continuous Stochastic Logic (CSL) extended with reward operators. Classical numerical…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-04-25 Luca Bortolussi , Luca Cardelli , Marta Kwiatkowska , Luca Laurenti

The expressive power of a Gaussian process (GP) model comes at a cost of poor scalability in the data size. To improve its scalability, this paper presents a low-rank-cum-Markov approximation (LMA) of the GP model that is novel in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-18 Kian Hsiang Low , Jiangbo Yu , Jie Chen , Patrick Jaillet

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) encompass large class of statistical models, with a vast range of applications areas. GLMM extends the linear mixed models allowing for different types of response variable. Three most common data…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-25 Wagner Hugo Bonat , Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro , Silvia emiko Shimakura

This paper introduces a new method for performing computational inference on log-Gaussian Cox processes. The likelihood is approximated directly by making novel use of a continuously specified Gaussian random field. We show that for…

Computation · Statistics 2015-11-02 Daniel Simpson , Janine Illian , Finn Lindgren , Sigrunn Sørbye , Håvard Rue

State-space models are used to describe and analyse dynamical systems. They are ubiquitously used in many scientific fields such as signal processing, finance and ecology to name a few. Particle filters are popular inferential methods used…

Computation · Statistics 2024-12-20 Alaa Amri

We present new methodologies for Bayesian inference on the rate parameters of a discretely observed continuous-time Markov jump processes with a countably infinite state space. The usual method of choice for inference, particle Markov chain…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-22 Chris Sherlock , Andrew Golightly