Related papers: FastSIR Algorithm: A Fast Algorithm for simulation…
We propose a new model that describes the dynamics of epidemic spreading on connected graphs. Our model consists in a PDE-ODE system where at each vertex of the graph we have a standard SIR model and connexions between vertices are given by…
Recent work by Erik Volz [arXiv:0705.2092] has shown how to calculate the growth and eventual decay of an SIR epidemic on a static random network, assuming infection and recovery each happen at constant rates. This calculation allows us to…
We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we…
The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks to model the spread of infectious diseases poses challenges that are becoming pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and…
The SIR model with spatially inhomogeneous infection rate is studied with numerical simulations in one, two, and three dimensions, considering the case that the infection spreads inhomogeneously in densely populated regions or hot spots. We…
We introduce a stochastic SIR-type partial differential equation model incorporating random diffusion, reinfection, vital dynamics, and a randomly varying transmission rate. For the associated random dynamical system, we prove the existence…
Promoting some typical spreading dynamics, for instance, the spreading of information, commercial message, vaccination guidance, innovation, and political movement, can bring benefits to all aspects of the socio-economic systems. In this…
This paper focuses on studying and understanding of stochastic dynamics in population composition when the population is subject to rumor spreading. We undertake the study by first developing an individual…
We propose an SIR epidemic model coupled with opinion dynamics to study an epidemic and opinions spreading in a network of communities. Our model couples networked SIR epidemic dynamics with opinions towards the severity of the epidemic,…
Mathematical models are instrumental to forecast the spread of pathogens and to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures. A plethora of optimal strategies has been recently developed to minimize either the infected peak…
Most real networks are characterized by connectivity patterns that evolve in time following complex, non-Markovian, dynamics. Here we investigate the impact of this ubiquitous feature by studying the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and…
This paper is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models on random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected neighbors at some rate $\omega$ (and reconnect to non-infectious individuals with probability…
The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation…
We present a framework to simulate SIR processes on networks using weighted shortest paths. Our framework maps the SIR dynamics to weights assigned to the edges of the network, which can be done for Markovian and non-Markovian processes…
We consider a class of spreading processes on networks, which generalize commonly used epidemic models such as the SIR model or the SIS model with a bounded number of re-infections. We analyse the related problem of inference of the…
The spread of an epidemic process is considered in the context of a spatial SIR stochastic model that includes a parameter $0\le p\le 1$ that assigns weights $p$ and $1- p$ to global and local infective contacts respectively. The model was…
An important problem of reconstruction of diffusion network and transmission probabilities from the data has attracted a considerable attention in the past several years. A number of recent papers introduced efficient algorithms for the…
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…
The disease spreading on complex networks is studied in SIR model. Simulations on empirical complex networks reveal two specific regimes of disease spreading: local containment and epidemic outbreak. The variables measuring the extent of…
We examine the age-structured SIR model, a variant of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic propagation, in the context of COVID-19. In doing so, we provide a theoretical basis for the model, perform an…