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Corporate insolvency can have a devastating effect on the economy. With an increasing number of companies making expansion overseas to capitalize on foreign resources, a multinational corporate bankruptcy can disrupt the world's financial…
Bursty dynamics is a common temporal property of various complex systems in Nature but it also characterises the dynamics of human actions and interactions. At the phenomenological level it is a feature of all systems that evolve…
Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this…
The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) poses new and poorly understood threats to financial stability. We use a game-theoretic model to analyse the stability impact of AI, finding that it amplifies existing financial system…
The inability to see and quantify systemic financial risk comes at an immense social cost. Systemic risk in the financial system arises to a large extent as a consequence of the interconnectedness of its institutions, which are linked…
Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat, or self-generated…
The Chinese stock market experienced an abrupt crash in 2015, and over one-third of its market value evaporated. Given its associations with fear and the fine resolution with respect to frequency, the illiquidity of stocks may offer a…
In order to figure out and to forecast the emergence phenomena of social systems, we propose several probabilistic models for the analysis of financial markets, especially around a crisis. We first attempt to visualize the collective…
The level of systemic risk in economic and financial systems is strongly determined by the structure of the underlying networks of interdependent entities that can propagate shocks and stresses. Since changes in network structure imply…
With the advent of seemingly unstructured big data, and through seamless integration of computation and physical components, cyber-physical systems (CPS) provide an innovative way to enhance safety and resiliency of transport…
Motivated by the hypothesis that financial crashes are macroscopic examples of critical phenomena associated with a discrete scaling symmetry, we reconsider the evidence of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes and test the…
Systemic risk in banking systems remains a crucial issue that it has not been completely understood. In our toy model, banks are exposed to two sources of risks, namely, market risk from their investments in assets external to the banking…
The 2008 financial crisis has been attributed to "excessive complexity" of the financial system due to financial innovation. We employ computational complexity theory to make this notion precise. Specifically, we consider the problem of…
No matter its source, financial- or policy-related, uncertainty can feed onto itself, inflicting the real economic sector, altering expectations and behaviours, and leading to identification challenges in empirical applications. The strong…
The financial markets are understood as complex dynamical systems whose dynamics is analysed mostly using nonstationary and brief data sets that usually come from stock markets. For such data sets, a reliable method of analysis is based on…
With rise in security breaches over the past few years, there has been an increasing need to mine insights from social media platforms to raise alerts of possible attacks in an attempt to defend conflict during competition. In this study,…
In the dynamic landscape of the Web, we are witnessing the emergence of the Web3 paradigm, which dictates that platforms should rely on blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies to sustain themselves and their profitability.…
We study the occurrence of frequency synchronised states with tunable emergent frequencies in a network of connected systems. This is achieved by the interplay between time scales of nonlinear dynamical systems connected to form a network,…
Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies 9…
A simple banking network model is proposed which features multiple waves of bank defaults and is analytically solvable in the limiting case of an infinitely large homogeneous network. The model is a collection of nodes representing…