Related papers: Frasian Inference

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly…

Generalized Bayes posterior distributions are formed by putting a fractional power on the likelihood before combining with the prior via Bayes's formula. This fractional power, which is often viewed as a remedy for potential model…

This contribution to the debate on confidence limits focuses mostly on the case of measurements with `open likelihood', in the sense that it is defined in the text. I will show that, though a prior-free assessment of {\it confidence} is, in…

Bayesian statistics is concerned with conducting posterior inference for the unknown quantities in a given statistical model. Conventional Bayesian inference requires the specification of a probabilistic model for the observed data, and the…

The vast majority of the literature on learning dynamical systems or stochastic processes from time series has focused on stable or ergodic systems, for both Bayesian and frequentist inference procedures. However, most real-world systems…

An overview is presented of a general theory of statistical inference that is referred to as the fiducial-Bayes fusion. This theory combines organic fiducial inference and Bayesian inference. The aim is that the reader is given a clear…

We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from…

The simultaneous estimation of multiple unknown parameters lies at heart of a broad class of important problems across science and technology. Currently, the state-of-the-art performance in the such problems is achieved by nonparametric…

In this paper, we study frequentist coverage errors of Bayesian credible sets for an approximately linear regression model with (moderately) high dimensional regressors, where the dimension of the regressors may increase with but is smaller…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Frequentist coverage of $(1-\alpha)$-highest posterior density (HPD) credible sets is studied in a signal plus noise model under a large class of noise distributions. We consider a specific class of spike-and-slab prior distributions.…

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

The formalism that allows to take into account the error sigma_b of the expected mean background b in the statistical analysis of a Poisson process with the frequentistic method is presented. It is shown that the error sigma_b cannot be…

We discuss Bayesian inference for parameters selected using the data. First, we provide a critical analysis of the existing positions in the literature regarding the correct Bayesian approach under selection. Second, we propose two types of…

The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to…

We study Bayesian approaches to causal inference via propensity score regression. Much of the Bayesian literature on propensity score methods have relied on approaches that cannot be viewed as fully Bayesian in the context of conventional…

After experimenting with a number of non-probabilistic methods for dealing with uncertainty many researchers reaffirm a preference for probability methods [1] [2], although this remains controversial. The importance of being able to form…

Variational methods are employed in situations where exact Bayesian inference becomes intractable due to the difficulty in performing certain integrals. Typically, variational methods postulate a tractable posterior and formulate a lower…

We propose modified frequentist definitions for the determination of confidence intervals for the case of Poisson statistics. We require that 1-\beta^{'} \geq \sum_{n=o}^{n_{obs}+k} P(n|\lambda) \geq \alpha^{'}. We show that this definition…

In a sparse stochastic block model with two communities of unequal sizes we derive two posterior concentration inequalities, that imply (1) posterior (almost-)exact recovery of the community structure under sparsity bounds comparable to…