Related papers: On return-volatility correlation in financial dyna…
A common belief is that leveraged ETFs (LETFs) suffer long-term performance decay due to \emph{volatility drag}. We show that this view is incomplete: LETF performance depends fundamentally on return autocorrelation and return dynamics. In…
We propose a comprehensive treatment of the leverage effect, i.e. the relationship between returns and volatility of a specific asset, focusing on energy commodities futures, namely Brent and WTI crude oils, natural gas and heating oil.…
We show how bad and good volatility propagate through forex markets, i.e., we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on forex markets. Using high-frequency, intra-day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 -…
An extensive empirical literature documents a generally negative correlation, named the "leverage effect," between asset returns and changes of volatility. It is more challenging to establish such a return-volatility relationship for jumps…
Previous research has shown that for stock indices, the most likely time until a return of a particular size has been observed is longer for gains than for losses. We establish that this so-called gain/loss asymmetry is present also for…
It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time…
The gain-loss asymmetry, observed in the inverse statistics of stock indices is present for logarithmic return levels that are over $2\%$, and it is the result of the non-Pearson type auto-correlations in the index. These non-Pearson type…
We simulate a series of daily returns from intraday price movements initiated by microstructure elements. Significant evidence is found that daily returns and daily return volatility exhibit first order autocorrelation, but trading volume…
A macroeconomic model based on the economic variables (i) assets, (ii) leverage (defined as debt over asset) and (iii) trust (defined as the maximum sustainable leverage) is proposed to investigate the role of credit in the dynamics of…
Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we aim at relating the long range correlation of the stocks return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations about the level of the future volatility. Based on a…
The leverage effect-- the correlation between an asset's return and its volatility-- has played a key role in forecasting and understanding volatility and risk. While it is a long standing consensus that leverage effects exist and improve…
We present a stochastic volatility market model where volatility is correlated with return and is represented by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. With this model we exactly measure the leverage effect and other stylized facts, such as mean…
We propose model-free (nonparametric) estimators of the volatility of volatility and leverage effect using high-frequency observations of short-dated options. At each point in time, we integrate available options into estimates of the…
Multifractal processes are a relatively new tool of stock market analysis. Their power lies in the ability to take multiple orders of autocorrelations into account explicitly. In the first part of the paper we discuss the framework of the…
Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank…
We study the relation between serial correlation of financial returns and volatility at intraday level for the S&P500 stock index. At daily and weekly level, serial correlation and volatility are known to be negatively correlated (LeBaron…
Using high frequency data, we have studied empirically the change of volatility, also called volatility derivative, for various time horizons. In particular, the correlation between the volatility derivative and the volatility realized in…
We present a relatively detailed analysis of the persistence probability distributions in financial dynamics. Compared with the auto-correlation function, the persistence probability distributions describe dynamic correlations non-local in…
Financial empirical correlation matrices of all the companies which both, the Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) and the Dow Jones comprised during the time period 1990-1999 are studied using a time window of a limited, either 30 or 60, number of…
We present a new volatility model, simple to implement, that includes a leverage effect whose return-volatility correlation function fits to empirical observations. This model is able to capture both the "retarded effect" induced by the…