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This article analyzes and compares two general techniques of rare event simulation for generating paths of Markov processes over fixed time horizons: exponential tilting and stochastic bridge. These two methods allow to accurately compute…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-08-27 Javier Aguilar , Riccardo Gatto

This work introduces a stochastic model predictive control scheme for dynamic chance constraints. We consider linear discrete-time systems affected by unbounded additive stochastic disturbance. To synthesize an optimal controller, we solve…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-07-26 Maico Hendrikus Wilhelmus Engelaar , Sofie Haesaert , Mircea Lazar

We present a method to sample Markov-chain trajectories constrained to both the initial and final conditions, which we term Markov bridges. The trajectories are conditioned to end in a specific state at a given time. We derive the master…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-01-07 Guillaume Le Treut , Sarah Ancheta , Greg Huber , Henri Orland , David Yllanes

This paper is concerned with classes of models of stochastic reaction dynamics with time-scales separation. We demonstrate that the existence of the time-scale separation naturally leads to the application of the averaging principle and…

Computational Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Sergey Plyasunov

Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC) problems arise in systems influenced by uncertainty, such as autonomous robots or financial models. Traditional methods like dynamic programming are often intractable for high-dimensional, nonlinear systems…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-25 Apurva Patil

This paper studies a novel approach for approximating the behavior of compartmental spreading processes. In contrast to prior work, the methods developed describe a dynamics which bound the exact moment dynamics, without explicitly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-07-21 Nicholas J. Watkins , Cameron Nowzari , Victor M. Preciado , George J. Pappas

Iterative trajectory optimization techniques for non-linear dynamical systems are among the most powerful and sample-efficient methods of model-based reinforcement learning and approximate optimal control. By leveraging time-variant local…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-08-01 Onur Celik , Hany Abdulsamad , Jan Peters

We introduce a statistical mechanics formalism for the study of constrained graph evolution as a Markovian stochastic process, in analogy with that available for spin systems, deriving its basic properties and highlighting the role of the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-05-13 A. C. C. Coolen , A. De Martino , A. Annibale

We explore the limit of stochastic differential equations driven by some random processes satisfying singularly perturbed second order stochastic differential equations. The main tool we employ is the universal limit theorem in rough path…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Qingming Zhao , Xueru Liu , Wei Wang

Conflict prediction is a vital component of path planning for autonomous vehicles. Prediction methods must be accurate for reliable navigation, but also computationally efficient to enable online path planning. Efficient prediction methods…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-02-28 Christian E. Roelofse , Corné E. van Daalen

We present a numerical method for computing optimal transition pathways and transition rates in systems of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In particular, we compute the most probable transition path of stochastic equations by…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Brandon S. Lindley , Ira B. Schwartz

Stochastic quantization in physics has been considered to provide a path integral representation of a probability distribution for Ito processes. It has been indicated that the stochastic quantization can involve a potential term, if the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2020-05-05 Masakazu Sano

A common problem that affects simulations of complex systems within the computational physics and chemistry communities is the so-called sampling problem or rare event problem where proper sampling of energy landscapes is impeded by the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-03-06 Benjamin Pampel , Simon Holbach , Lisa Hartung , Omar Valsson

Recently, it has been recognized that phase transitions play an important role in the probabilistic analysis of combinatorial optimization problems. However, there are in fact many other relations that lead to close ties between computer…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 O. C. Martin , R. Monasson , R. Zecchina

This paper presents a stochastic model predictive control approach for nonlinear systems subject to time-invariant probabilistic uncertainties in model parameters and initial conditions. The stochastic optimal control problem entails a cost…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-10-17 Stefan Streif , Matthias Karl , Ali Mesbah

Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-01-11 Luca Bortolussi , Guido Sanguinetti

Transition pathways of stochastic dynamical systems are typically approximated by instantons. Here we show, using a dynamical system containing two competing pathways, that at low-to-intermediate temperatures, instantons can fail to capture…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-08-05 Lukas Kikuchi , Ronojoy Adhikari , Julian Kappler

Pedestrian trajectory prediction is a challenging task because of the complexity of real-world human social behaviors and uncertainty of the future motion. For the first issue, existing methods adopt fully connected topology for modeling…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-07-25 Lidan Zhang , Qi She , Ping Guo

This paper focuses on learning a model of system dynamics online while satisfying safety constraints.Our motivation is to avoid offline system identification or hand-specified dynamics models and allowa system to safely and autonomously…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-05-07 Mohammad Javad Khojasteh , Vikas Dhiman , Massimo Franceschetti , Nikolay Atanasov

Stochastic computational models in the form of pure jump processes occur frequently in the description of chemical reactive processes, of ion channel dynamics, and of the spread of infections in populations. For spatially extended models,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-23 Augustin Chevallier , Stefan Engblom