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It is well known that the probability distribution of high-frequency financial returns is characterized by a leptokurtic, heavy-tailed shape. This behavior undermines the typical assumption of Gaussian log-returns behind the standard…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-14 Federica De Domenico , Giacomo Livan , Guido Montagna , Oreste Nicrosini

Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, hierarchical models for collective risk with heavy-tails of the claims distributions that take also…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-26 Pamela M. Chiroque-Solano , Fernando A. S. Moura

In optical non-linear processes rogue waves can be observed, which can be mathematically described by heavy-tailed distributions. These distributions are special due to the fact that the probability of registering extremely high intensities…

Optics · Physics 2021-05-26 Éva Rácz , László Ruppert , Radim Filip

For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Chen Zhou

A record is an entry in a time series that is larger or smaller than all previous entries. If the time series consists of independent, identically distributed random variables with a superimposed linear trend, record events are positively…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-30 J. Franke , G. Wergen , J. Krug

We propose a stochastic process driven by memory effect with novel distributions including both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of distribution is analytically derived from the continuum limit of the discrete…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-05-14 Jongwook Kim , Gabjin Oh

Heavy-tailed phenomena appear across diverse domains --from wealth and firm sizes in economics to network traffic, biological systems, and physical processes-- characterized by the disproportionate influence of extreme values. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-10 Hamidreza Maleki Almani

Data exhibiting heavy-tails in one or more dimensions is often studied using the framework of regular variation. In a multivariate setting this requires identifying specific forms of dependence in the data; this means identifying that the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-02 Bikramjit Das , Sidney I. Resnick

Understanding human dynamics is of major scientific and practical importance and can be increasingly addressed in a quantitative fashion thanks to electronic records capturing various human activity patterns. The authors of Ref. [1] revisit…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 A. -L. Barabasi , K. -I. Goh , A. Vazquez

We study tail risk dynamics in high-frequency financial markets and their connection with trading activity and market uncertainty. We introduce a dynamic extreme value regression model accommodating both stationary and local unit-root…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-05 Julien Hambuckers , Li Sun , Luca Trapin

A classic problem in physics is the origin of fat tailed distributions generated by complex systems. We study the distributions of stock returns measured over different time lags $\tau.$ We find that destroying all correlations without…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2008-12-02 G. M. Viswanathan , U. L. Fulco , M. L. Lyra , M. Serva

We propose an approach to compute the conditional moments of fat-tailed phenomena that, only looking at data, could be mistakenly considered as having infinite mean. This type of problems manifests itself when a random variable Y has a…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-02 Nassim Nicholas Taleb , Pasquale Cirillo

Intervals between discrete events representing human activities, as well as other types of events, often obey heavy-tailed distributions, and their impacts on collective dynamics on networks such as contagion processes have been intensively…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-11-24 Elohim Fonseca dos Reis , Aming Li , Naoki Masuda

The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-23 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

In complex systems such as turbulent flows and financial markets, the dynamics in long and short time-lags, signaled by Gaussian and fat-tailed statistics, respectively, calls for a unified description. To address this issue we analyze a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 A. A. G. Cortines , R. Riera , C. Anteneodo

Extreme events have an important role which is sometime catastrophic in a variety of natural phenomena including climate, earthquakes and turbulence, as well as in man-made environments like financial markets. Statistical analysis and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-10-31 Victor S. L'vov , Anna Pomyalov , Itamar Procaccia

Heavy-tailed distributions are frequently used to enhance the robustness of regression and classification methods to outliers in output space. Often, however, we are confronted with "outliers" in input space, which are isolated observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-06-24 Fabian L. Wauthier , Michael I. Jordan

We consider the estimation of small probabilities or other risk quantities associated with rare but catastrophic events. In the model-based literature, much of the focus has been devoted to efficient Monte Carlo computation or analytical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-02 Zhiyuan Huang , Henry Lam , Zhenyuan Liu

Using the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of correlations matrices of some of the main financial market indices in the world, we show that high volatility of markets is directly linked with strong correlations between them. This means that…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-08-11 Leonidas Sandoval Junior , Italo De Paula Franca

In this survey we present an extensive research of the vast literature about the Generalized Lambda Distribution (GLD) and propose a hurdle, or two-way, model whose associated distribution is the GLD in order to meet the demand for a highly…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-04 Diego Marcondes , Cláudia Peixoto , Ana Carolina Maia