Related papers: Testing for a generalized Pareto process

This paper presents a new model for characterising temporal dependence in exceedances above a threshold. The model is based on the class of trawl processes, which are stationary, infinitely divisible stochastic processes. The model for…

We develop a novel continuous-time asymptotic framework for inference on whether the predictive ability of a given forecast model remains stable over time. We formally define forecast instability from the economic forecaster's perspective…

Modern machine learning models are often constructed taking into account multiple objectives, e.g., minimizing inference time while also maximizing accuracy. Multi-objective hyperparameter optimization (MHPO) algorithms return such…

We consider linear regression in the high-dimensional regime where the number of observations $n$ is smaller than the number of parameters $p$. A very successful approach in this setting uses $\ell_1$-penalized least squares (a.k.a. the…

We consider large non-Hermitian random matrices $X$ with complex, independent, identically distributed centred entries and show that the linear statistics of their eigenvalues are asymptotically Gaussian for test functions having…

Let $X_1,X_2,...$ be a discrete-time stochastic process with a distribution $P_\theta$, $\theta\in\Theta$, where $\Theta$ is an open subset of the real line. We consider the problem of testing a simple hypothesis $H_0:$ $\theta=\theta_0$…

We develop a uniform inference theory for high-dimensional slope parameters in threshold regression models, allowing for either cross-sectional or time series data. We first establish oracle inequalities for prediction errors, and L1…

Consider an observation of a multivariate temporal point process $N$ with law $\mathcal P$ on the time interval $[0,T]$. To test the null hypothesis that $\mathcal P$ belongs to a given parametric family, we construct a convergent…

In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the point process of exceedances in a spatio-temporal setting whose points are given by the rescaled occurrence times, the sites and the rescaled values of exceedances. Here, the…

Let X_n=(x_{ij}) be an n by p data matrix, where the n rows form a random sample of size n from a certain p-dimensional population distribution. Let R_n=(\rho_{ij}) be the p\times p sample correlation matrix of X_n; that is, the entry…

In this paper, we revisit the classical goodness-of-fit problems for univariate distributions; we propose a new testing procedure based on a characterisation of the uniform distribution. Asymptotic theory for the simple hypothesis case is…

We consider exact asymptotics of the minimax risk for global testing against sparse alternatives in the context of high dimensional linear regression. Our results characterize the leading order behavior of this minimax risk in several…

We study the matrix discrepancy problem in the average-case setting. Given a sequence of $m \times m$ symmetric matrices $A_1,\ldots,A_n$, its discrepancy is defined as the minimal spectral norm over all signed sums $\sum_{i=1}^n x_iA_i$…

This paper introduces a class of generalised linear models (GLMs) driven by latent processes for modelling count, real-valued, binary, and positive continuous time series. Extending earlier latent-process regression frameworks based on…

Regularly varying stochastic processes model extreme dependence between process values at different locations and/or time points. For such processes we propose a two-step parameter estimation of the extremogram, when some part of the domain…

Extreme value theory offers a statistical framework for quantifying the risk of rare events, with the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution providing the canonical limit model for univariate threshold exceedances. In many applications,…

This paper considers the problem of testing if a sequence of means $(\mu_t)_{t =1,\ldots ,n }$ of a non-stationary time series $(X_t)_{t =1,\ldots ,n }$ is stable in the sense that the difference of the means $\mu_1$ and $\mu_t$ between the…

Asymptotic statistical theory for estimating functions is reviewed in a generality suitable for stochastic processes. Conditions concerning existence of a consistent estimator, uniqueness, rate of convergence, and the asymptotic…

Consider a random vector $(X,Y)$ and let $m(x)=E(Y|X=x)$. We are interested in testing $H_0:m\in {\cal M}_{\Theta,{\cal G}}=\{\gamma(\cdot,\theta,g):\theta \in \Theta,g\in {\cal G}\}$ for some known function $\gamma$, some compact set…

Generalized linear models and the quasi-likelihood method extend the ordinary regression models to accommodate more general conditional distributions of the response. Nonparametric methods need no explicit parametric specification, and the…