Related papers: Modeling electricity spot prices using mean-revert…
In this paper we introduce an additive two-factor model for electricity futures prices based on Normal Inverse Gaussian L\'evy processes, that fulfills a no-overlapping-arbitrage (NOA) condition. We compute European option prices by Fourier…
Starting from a basic model in which the dynamic of the transaction prices is a geometric Brownian motion disrupted by a microstructure white noise, corresponding to the random alternation of bids and asks, we propose moment-based…
Wind energy has emerged as one of the most vital and economically viable forms of renewable energy. The integration of wind energy sources into power grids across the globe has been increasing substantially, largely due to the higher levels…
For a commodity spot price dynamics given by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility, we price forwards using a class of pricing measures that simultaneously allow for change of level and…
Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical for strategic decision-making in deregulated electricity markets, where volatility stems from complex supply-demand dynamics and external factors. Traditional point forecasts often fail to…
We consider the Black--Scholes model of financial market modified to capture the stochastic nature of volatility observed at real financial markets. For volatility driven by the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, we establish the existence of…
Distribution locational marginal prices (DLMPs) facilitate the efficient operation of low-voltage electric power distribution systems. We propose an approach to internalize the stochasticity of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs)…
The article is devoted to models of financial markets with stochastic volatility, which is defined by a functional of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process or Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. We study the question of exact price of European option. The…
Quantity and price risks are key uncertainties market participants face in electricity markets with increased volatility, for instance, due to high shares of renewables. From day ahead until real-time, there is a large variation in the best…
Accurate electricity price forecasting is the main management goal for market participants since it represents the fundamental basis to maximize the profits for market players. However, electricity is a non-storable commodity and the…
The search for more realistic modeling of financial time series reveals several stylized facts of real markets. In this work we focus on the multifractal properties found in price and index signals. Although the usual Minority Game (MG)…
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of forecasting on the interface of electrical engineering, statistics, computer science, and finance, which focuses on predicting prices in wholesale electricity markets for a whole spectrum…
In this study we define a three-step procedure to relate the self-decomposability of the stationary law of a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to the law of the increments of such processes. Based on this procedure and the results of…
An effective distribution electricity market (DEM) is required to manage the rapidly growing small-scale distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution systems (DSs). This paper proposes a day-ahead DEM clearing and pricing mechanism…
This paper presents a novel hybrid approach for constricting probabilistic forecasts that combines both the Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) method and the factor-based averaging scheme. The performance of the approach is evaluated on…
In this paper, statistical machine learning algorithms, as well as deep neural networks, are used to predict the values of the price gap between day-ahead and real-time electricity markets. Several exogenous features are collected and…
When stock prices are observed at high frequencies, more information can be utilized in estimation of parameters of the price process. However, high-frequency data are contaminated by the market microstructure noise which causes significant…
We study the problem of forecasting and optimally trading day-ahead versus real-time (DART) price spreads in U.S. wholesale electricity markets. Building on the framework of Galarneau-Vincent et al., we extend spike prediction from a single…
Understanding the micro-dynamics of asset prices in modern electronic order books is crucial for investors and regulators. In this paper, we use an order by order Eurostoxx database spanning over 3 years to analyze the joint dynamics of…
We propose a method for constructing sparse high-frequency volatility estimators that are robust against change points in the spot volatility process. The estimators we propose are $\ell_1$-regularized versions of existing volatility…