Related papers: Mean exit time and escape probability for dynamica…

This article concerns the large deviations regime and the consequent solution of the Kramers problem for a two-time scale stochastic system driven by a common jump noise signal perturbed in small intensity $\varepsilon>0$ and with…

We study the stability of deterministic systems given sequences of large, jump-like perturbations. Our main result is to dervie a lower bound for the probability of the system to remain in the basin, given that perturbations are rare…

By appealing to renewal theory we determine the equations that the mean exit time of a continuous-time random walk with drift satisfies both when the present coincides with a jump instant or when it does not. Particular attention is paid to…

We consider a stochastic process driven by a diffusion and jumps. We devise a technique, which is based on a discrete record of observations, for identifying the times when jumps larger than a suitably defined threshold occurred. The…

In this paper we study the reachability problem for discrete-time nonlinear stochastic systems. Our goal is to present a unified framework for calculating the probabilistic reachable set of discrete-time systems in the presence of both…

We study the first exit times form a reduced domain of attraction of a stable fixed of the Chafee-Infante equation when perturbed by a heavy tailed L\'evy noise with small intensity.

For a smooth vector field in a neighborhood of a critical point with all positive eigenvalues of the linearization, we consider the associated dynamics perturbed by white noise. Using Malliavin calculus tools, we obtain polynomial…

For a spectrally positive strictly stable process with index in (1,2), the paper obtains i) the density of the time when the process makes first exit from an interval by hitting the interval's lower end point before jumping over its upper…

We investigate fluid transport in random velocity fields with unsteady drift. First, we propose to quantify fluid transport between flow regimes of different characteristic motion, by escape probability and mean residence time. We then…

We present a detailed study on the mean first-passage time of volatility processes. We analyze the theoretical expressions based on the most common stochastic volatility models along with empirical results extracted from daily data of major…

Systems of stochastic particles evolving in a multi-well energy landscape and attracted to their barycenter is the prototypical example of mean-field process undergoing phase transitions: at low temperature, the corresponding mean-field…

We study exit times from time-dependent domains under joint perturbations of the trajectory and the domain. Representing a moving domain by a continuous barrier $\Phi$ on space-time, we reduce the exit problem to a one-dimensional…

Continuous-time stochastic systems have attracted a lot of attention recently, due to their wide-spread use in finance for modelling price-dynamics. More recently models taking into accounts shocks have been developed by assuming that the…

For a one-dimensional smooth vector field in a neighborhood of an unstable equilibrium, we consider the associated dynamics perturbed by small noise. Using Malliavin calculus tools, we obtain precise vanishing noise asymptotics for the tail…

We study exit times from a set for a family of multivariate autoregressive processes with normally distributed noise. By using the large deviation principle, and other methods, we show that the asymptotic behavior of the exit time depends…

We present a study of the noise driven escape of an overdamped Brownian particle moving in a cubic potential profile with a metastable state. We analyze the role of the initial conditions of the particle on the enhancement of the average…

The first-passage time (FPT), defined as the time a random walker takes to reach a target point in a confining domain, is a key quantity in the theory of stochastic processes. Its importance comes from its crucial role to quantify the…

We shortly review the statistical properties of the escape times, or hitting times, for stock price returns by using different models which describe the stock market evolution. We compare the probability function (PF) of these escape times…

We provide Large Deviation estimates for the bridge of a $d$-dimensional general diffusion process as the conditioning time tends to $0$ and apply these results to the evaluation of the asymptotics of its exit time probabilities. We are…

It is well known that the addition of noise in a multistable system can induce random transitions between stable states. The rate of transition can be characterised in terms of the noise-free system's dynamics and the added noise: for…