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Related papers: Heavy-tail driven by memory

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Heavy-tailed phenomena appear across diverse domains --from wealth and firm sizes in economics to network traffic, biological systems, and physical processes-- characterized by the disproportionate influence of extreme values. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-10 Hamidreza Maleki Almani

[Takayasu et al., Phys. Rev.Lett. 79, 966 (1997)] revisited the question of stochastic processes with multiplicative noise, which have been studied in several different contexts over the past decades. We focus on the regime, found for a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-30 D. Sornette

We study a stochastic process defined by the interaction strength for the return to the mean and a stochastic term proportional to the magnitude of the variable. Its steady-state distribution is the Inverse Gamma distribution, whose…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-08-01 Z. Liu , R. A. Serota

The dominant approaches to text representation in natural language rely on learning embeddings on massive corpora which have convenient properties such as compositionality and distance preservation. In this paper, we develop a novel method…

Understanding the statistical properties of recurrence intervals of extreme events is crucial to risk assessment and management of complex systems. The probability distributions and correlations of recurrence intervals for many systems have…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-05-10 Hao Meng , Fei Ren , Gao-Feng Gu , Xiong Xiong , Yong-Jie Zhang , Wei-Xing Zhou , Wei Zhang

Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-25 Anja Janssen , Holger Drees

We give new formulas on the total number of born particles in the stable birth-and-assassination process, and prove that it has an heavy-tailed distribution. We also establish that this process is a scaling limit of a process of rumor…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-10-20 Charles Bordenave

It is argued that there is a need for fat-tailed distributions that become thin in the extreme tail. A 3-parameter distribution is introduced that visually resembles the t-distribution and interpolates between the normal distribution and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-08 Rose D Baker

We propose a family of models that enable predictive estimation of time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinearly dependent time series. The models are a white noise process with conditionally log-Laplace…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-19 Gordon V. Chavez

In a broad class of reinforcement learning applications, stochastic rewards have heavy-tailed distributions, which lead to infinite second-order moments for stochastic (semi)gradients in policy evaluation and direct policy optimization. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Semih Cayci , Atilla Eryilmaz

Neurons process sensory stimuli efficiently, showing sparse yet highly variable ensemble spiking activity involving structured higher-order interactions. Notably, while neural populations are mostly silent, they occasionally exhibit highly…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-07-17 Ulises Rodríguez-Domínguez , Hideaki Shimazaki

We analyze neural scaling laws in a solvable model of last-layer fine-tuning where targets have intrinsic, instance-heterogeneous difficulty. In our Latent Instance Difficulty (LID) model, each input's target variance is governed by a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-08 Noam Levi

We present a simple model of a stock market where a random communication structure between agents gives rise to a heavy tails in the distribution of stock price variations in the form of an exponentially truncated power-law, similar to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-01-14 Rama Cont , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

In this paper we analyze a branching process with immigration defined recursively by $X_t=\theta_t\circ X_{t-1}+B_t$ for a sequence $(B_t)$ of i.i.d. random variables and random mappings $ \theta_t\circ x:=\theta_t(x)=\sum_{i=1}^xA_i^{(t)},…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-07-31 Bojan Basrak , Rafał Kulik , Zbigniew Palmowski

Animal behavior is shaped by a myriad of mechanisms acting on a wide range of scales, which hampers quantitative reasoning and the identification of general principles. Here, we combine data analysis and theory to investigate the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-04-25 Antonio Carlos Costa , Gautam Sridhar , Claire Wyart , Massimo Vergassola

In this work, we consider systems that are subjected to intermittent instabilities due to external stochastic excitation. These intermittent instabilities, though rare, have a large impact on the probabilistic response of the system and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-06-02 Mustafa A. Mohamad , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

Understanding the properties of response time distributions is a long-standing problem in cognitive science. We provide a tutorial overview of several contemporary models that assume power law scaling is a plausible description of the…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-10-15 Z. Liu , O. Pavlov Garcia , J. G. Holden , R. A. Serota

We present an overview of possible reasons for the appearance of heavy-tailed distributions in applications to the natural sciences. These distributions include the laws of Pareto, Lotka, and some new ones. The reasons are illustrated using…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-01-24 Lev B. Klebanov , Yulia V. Kuvaeva

This work is denoted to studying the tail behavior of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes with regime-switching. One essential difference shown in this work between CIR process with regime-switching and without regime-switching is that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-07 Tongtong Hou , Jinghai Shao

The critical brain hypothesis posits that neural circuitry operates near criticality to reap the computational benefits of accessing a wide range of timescales. The theory of critical phenomena generally predicts heavy-tailed (power-law)…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-12-23 Jacob T. Crosser , Braden A. W. Brinkman