Related papers: Central limit approximations for Markov population…
These notes describe stochastic epidemics in a homogenous community. Our main concern is stochastic compartmental models (i.e. models where each individual belongs to a compartment, which stands for its status regarding the epidemic under…
There is a long history of establishing central limit theorems for Markov chains. Quantitative bounds for chains with a spectral gap were proved by Mann and refined later. Recently, rates of convergence for the total variation distance were…
The purpose of this paper is to study a Markovian metapopulation model on a directed graph with edge-supported transfers and deterministic intra-nodal population dynamics. We first state tractable stability conditions for two typical…
We consider an asexually reproducing population on a finite type space whose evolution is driven by exponential birth, death and competition rates, as well as the possibility of mutation at a birth event. On the individual-based level this…
We study a variant of Hanski's incidence function model that allows habitat patch characteristics to vary over time following a Markov process. The widely studied case where patches are classified as either suitable or unsuitable is…
We consider a finite number of $N$ statistically equal agents, each moving on a finite set of states according to a continuous-time Markov Decision Process (MDP). Transition intensities of the agents and generated rewards depend not only on…
We consider a population with non-overlapping generations, whose size goes to infinity. It is described by a discrete genealogy which may be time non-homogeneous and we pay special attention to branching trees in varying environments. A…
The purpose of this work is to establish a central limit theorem that can be applied to a particular form of Markov chains, including the number of descents in a random permutation of $\mathfrak{S}_n$, two-type generalized P{\'o}lya urns,…
In this paper, we establish a spatial central limit theorem for a large class of supercritical branching, not necessarily symmetric, Markov processes with spatially dependent branching mechanisms satisfying a second moment condition. This…
We consider a class of density-dependent branching processes which generalises exponential, logistic and Gompertz growth. A population begins with a single individual, grows exponentially initially, and then growth may slow down as the…
The structure of heterogeneous networks and human mobility patterns profoundly influence the spreading of endemic diseases. In small-scale communities, individuals engage in social interactions within confined environments, such as homes…
In this paper, we are concerned with centered Markov Additive Processes $\{(X_t,Y_t)\}_{t\in\T}$ where the driving Markov process $\{X_t\}_{t\in\T}$ has a finite state space. Under suitable conditions, we provide a local limit theorem for…
This paper presents a law of large numbers result, as the size of the population tends to infinity, of SIR stochastic epidemic models, for a population distributed over $L$ distinct patches (with migrations between them) and $K$ distinct…
Epidemic dynamics in a stochastic network of interacting epidemic centers is considered. The epidemic and migration processes are modelled by Markov's chains. Explicit formulas for probability distribution of the migration process are…
The aim of this paper is to tackle part of the program set by Diekmann et al. in their seminal paper Diekmann et al. (2001). We quote "It remains to investigate whether, and in what sense, the nonlinear determin-istic model formulation is…
We prove a central limit theorem for a sequence of random variables whose means are ambiguous and vary in an unstructured way. Their joint distribution is described by a set of measures. The limit is (not the normal distribution and is)…
Density dependent Markov population processes in large populations of size $N$ were shown by Kurtz (1970, 1971) to be well approximated over finite time intervals by the solution of the differential equations that describe their average…
In this paper, we establish a version of the central limit theorem for Markov-Feller continuous time processes (with a Polish state space) that are exponentially ergodic in the bounded-Lipschitz distance and enjoy a continuous form of the…
The paper discusses a family of Markov processes that represent many particle systems, and their limiting behaviour when the number of particles go to infinity. The first part concerns model of biological systems: a model for sympatric…
Fleming-Viot type particle systems represent a classical way to approximate the distribution of a Markov process with killing, given that it is still alive at a final deterministic time. In this context, each particle evolves independently…