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We study sequential prediction of real-valued, arbitrary and unknown sequences under the squared error loss as well as the best parametric predictor out of a large, continuous class of predictors. Inspired by recent results from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-01-24 N. Denizcan Vanli , Suleyman S. Kozat

Decoding from large language models (LLMs) typically relies on fixed sampling hyperparameters (e.g., temperature, top-p), despite substantial variation in task difficulty and uncertainty across prompts and individual decoding steps. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Chloe H. Su , Zhe Ye , Samuel Tenka , Aidan Yang , Soonho Kong , Udaya Ghai

We consider a model where an agent has a repeated decision to make and wishes to maximize their total payoff. Payoffs are influenced by an action taken by the agent, but also an unknown state of the world that evolves over time. Before…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Nicole Immorlica , Ian Kash , Brendan Lucier

We consider the infinite-horizon discounted optimal control problem formalized by Markov Decision Processes. We focus on several approximate variations of the Policy Iteration algorithm: Approximate Policy Iteration, Conservative Policy…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-05-13 Bruno Scherrer

This paper is concerned with the problem of policy evaluation with linear function approximation in discounted infinite horizon Markov decision processes. We investigate the sample complexities required to guarantee a predefined estimation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-03 Gen Li , Weichen Wu , Yuejie Chi , Cong Ma , Alessandro Rinaldo , Yuting Wei

Adaptive sampling is a useful algorithmic tool for data summarization problems in the classical centralized setting, where the entire dataset is available to the single processor performing the computation. Adaptive sampling repeatedly…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Sepideh Mahabadi , Ilya Razenshteyn , David P. Woodruff , Samson Zhou

Efficient sampling and remote estimation are critical for a plethora of wireless-empowered applications in the Internet of Things and cyber-physical systems. Motivated by such applications, this work proposes decentralized policies for the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-09 Xingran Chen , Xinyu Liao , Shirin Saeedi Bidokhti

The convex analytic method has proved to be a very versatile method for the study of infinite horizon average cost optimal stochastic control problems. In this paper, we revisit the convex analytic method and make three primary…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-04 Ari Arapostathis , Serdar Yüksel

Strategic test allocation plays a major role in the control of both emerging and existing pandemics (e.g., COVID-19, HIV). Widespread testing supports effective epidemic control by (1) reducing transmission via identifying cases, and (2)…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Ivana Malenica , Jeremy R. Coyle , Mark J. van der Laan , Maya L. Petersen

In this paper, we consider a finite horizon non-stationary inventory system with setup costs. We detail an algorithm to find an approximate optimal policy and the basic idea is to use numerical procedure for computing integrals involved in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-16 Jianyong Liu , Wei Geng , Xiaobo Zhao

In this paper, we consider discrete-time infinite horizon problems of optimal control to a terminal set of states. These are the problems that are often taken as the starting point for adaptive dynamic programming. Under very general…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-10-05 Dimitri P. Bertsekas

We study a fundamental stochastic selection problem involving $n$ independent random variables, each of which can be queried at some cost. Given a tolerance level $\delta$, the goal is to find a value that is $\delta$-approximately minimum…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Hessa Al-Thani , Viswanath Nagarajan

We propose an adaptive sequential framework for testing two simple hypotheses that analytically ensures finite exposure to the less effective treatment. Our proposed procedure employs a likelihood ratio-driven adaptive allocation rule,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-26 Sampurna Kundu , Jayant Jha , Subir Kumar Bhandari

We consider a random interval splitting process, in which the splitting rule depends on the empirical distribution of interval lengths. We show that this empirical distribution converges to a limit almost surely as the number of intervals…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-20 Pascal Maillard , Elliot Paquette

Probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling schemes with a target sample size aim to produce a sample comprising a specified number $n$ of items while ensuring that each item in the population appears in the sample with a probability…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Brian Hentschel , Peter J. Haas , Yuanyuan Tian

Reinforcement learning is a general technique that allows an agent to learn an optimal policy and interact with an environment in sequential decision making problems. The goodness of a policy is measured by its value function starting from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-30 C. Shi , S. Zhang , W. Lu , R. Song

The dramatic increase of autonomous systems subject to variable environments has given rise to the pressing need to consider risk in both the synthesis and verification of policies for these systems. This paper aims to address a few…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-04-22 Prithvi Akella , Anushri Dixit , Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Joel W. Burdick , Aaron D. Ames

Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for reinforcement learning (RL) in high-stakes settings. We propose a unified conformal prediction framework for infinite-horizon policy evaluation that constructs distribution-free prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Feichen Gan , Youcun Lu , Yingying Zhang , Yukun Liu

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

We consider adaptive decision-making problems where an agent optimizes a cumulative performance objective by repeatedly choosing among a finite set of options. Compared to the classical prediction-with-expert-advice set-up, we consider…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-10 Michael Muehlebach
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