Related papers: Efficient Rare-event Simulation for Perpetuities
State-of-the-art methods for rare event simulation of non-Markovian models face practical or theoretical limits if observing the event of interest requires prior knowledge or information on the timed behavior of the system. In this paper,…
A bivariate random vector can exhibit either asymptotic independence or dependence between the largest values of its components. When used as a statistical model for risk assessment in fields such as finance, insurance or meteorology, it is…
In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In…
Entries of datasets are often collected only if an event occurred: taking a survey, enrolling in an experiment and so forth. However, such partial samples bias classical correlation estimators. Here we show how to correct for such sampling…
In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm for rare event estimation based on adaptive importance sampling. We consider a smoothed version of the optimal importance sampling density, which is approximated by an ensemble of interacting…
We consider a critical branching particle system in $\R^d$, composed of individuals of a finite number of types $i\in\{1,...,K\}$. Each individual of type $i$ moves independently according to a symmetric $\alpha_i$-stable motion. We assume…
We propose a new method for estimating the extreme quantiles for a function of several dependent random variables. In contrast to the conventional approach based on extreme value theory, we do not impose the condition that the tail of the…
In semivarying coefficient models for longitudinal/clustered data, usually of primary interest is usually the parametric component which involves unknown constant coefficients. First, we study semiparametric efficiency bound for estimation…
In this paper, we present the asymptotic properties of the moment estimator for autoregressive (AR for short) models subject to Markovian changes in regime under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily…
In an instrumental variable model, the score statistic can be bounded for any alternative in parts of the parameter space. These regions involve a constraint on the first-stage regression coefficients and the reduced-form covariance matrix.…
We use bias-reduced estimators of high quantiles, of heavy-tailed distributions, to introduce a new estimator of the mean in the case of infinite second moment. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established and checked,…
We introduce Path-ZVA: an efficient simulation technique for estimating the probability of reaching a rare goal state before a regeneration state in a (discrete-time) Markov chain. Standard Monte Carlo simulation techniques do not work well…
We present new estimators for the statistical analysis of the dependence of the mean gap time length between consecutive recurrent events, on a set of explanatory random variables and in the presence of right censoring. The dependence is…
In this paper, we focus on regression estimation in both the inductive and the transductive case. We assume that we are given a set of features (which can be a base of functions, but not necessarily). We begin by giving a deviation…
Case-deleted analysis is a popular method for evaluating the influence of a subset of cases on inference. The use of Monte Carlo estimation strategies in complicated Bayesian settings leads naturally to the use of importance sampling…
We study the estimation of a stable Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, which is a special subcritical continuous-state branching process with immigration. The process is characterized in terms of some stochastic equations. The exponential ergodicity…
We present an analytical technique to compute the probability of rare events in which the largest eigenvalue of a random matrix is atypically large (i.e.\ the right tail of its large deviations). The results also transfer to the left tail…
Given a sequence of observations from a discrete-time, finite-state hidden Markov model, we would like to estimate the sampling distribution of a statistic. The bootstrap method is employed to approximate the confidence regions of a…
Rare event simulation and estimation for systems in equilibrium are among the most challenging topics in molecular dynamics. As was shown by Jarzynski and others, nonequilibrium forcing can theoretically be used to obtain equilibrium rare…
We propose an easily computed estimator of marginal likelihoods from posterior simulation output, via reciprocal importance sampling, combining earlier proposals of DiCiccio et al (1997) and Robert and Wraith (2009). This involves only the…