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Related papers: Long- and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts during t…

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Predicting tsunami impacts at remote coasts largely relies on tsunami en-route measurements in an open ocean. In this work, these measurements are used to generate instant tsunami predictions in deep water and near the coast. The…

Geophysics · Physics 2018-12-06 Elena Tolkova , Dmitry Nicolsky , Dailin Wang

The M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake on July 29, 2025 was one of the largest in the first quarter of the 21st century. It deserves a thorough analysis including the preparation process. A smaller M7.4 earthquake occurred on July 20 with its…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-01-23 Ivan O. Kitov

We present a simple yet efficient supervised machine learning algorithm that is designed for the GNSS position time series prediction. This algorithm has four steps. First, the mean value of the time series is subtracted from it. Second,…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-06-17 M. Kiani

It is useful to consider the earthquakes in terms of catastrophe theory. In the paper, we illustrate this statement by analysis foreshocks preceding the strong earthquakes. We focused on the so-called catastrophe flags, and on the triggers…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-10-29 A. V. Guglielmi , A. L. Sobisevich , L. E. Sobisevich , I. P. Lavrov

The paper is a first attempt for statistical estimation of method for a short time prediction of incoming earthquake in the Balkan and Black Sea region from January to June, 2002. The essence of the discovery is that the geomagnetic local…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 S. Cht. Mavrodiev

In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise --- intermittent avalanche-like relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes --- the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 Jörn Davidsen , Marco Baiesi

In an earthquake event, the combination of a strong mainshock and damaging aftershocks is often the cause of severe structural damages and/or high death tolls. The objective of this paper is to provide estimation for the probability of such…

Applications · Statistics 2019-06-18 Juan-Juan Cai , Phyllis Wan , Gamze Ozel

Sequences of aftershocks following Omori's empirical law are observed after most major earthquakes, as well as in laboratory-scale fault-mimicking experiments. Nevertheless, the origin of this memory effect is still unclear. In this letter,…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-03-28 A. Mathey , J. Crassous , D. Marsan , J. Weiss , A. Amon

The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 C. Godano , L. de Arcangelis

In this article we implemented simulations of the OFC model for earthquakes for two different topologies: regular and small-world, where in the latter the links are randomly rewired with probability $p$ . In both topologies, we have studied…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2014-05-05 Douglas S. R. Ferreira , Andrés R. R. Papa , Ronaldo Menezes

Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-04 Randall D. Peters , Martine Le Berre , Yves Pomeau

The seismic potential maps for Greece, particularly for the years 2005 and 2010 (end of 2009), have been calculated following the methodology of the "lithospheric seismic energy flow model". The compiled, for the year 2005, map is compared…

Geophysics · Physics 2010-01-12 C. Thanassoulas , V. Klentos

During the last twenty years, a number of publications of theoretical-numerical nature have appeared which come to the apparently-reassuring conclusion that seismic motion on the ground in cities is smaller than what this motion would be in…

Geophysics · Physics 2016-08-01 Armand Wirgin

It is shown that earthquakes do not know how large they will become, at least from the information collected at seismic catalogs. In other words, the magnitude is independent on previous magnitudes as well as on the waiting time between…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-10 Alvaro Corral

We use wireless voice-call and text-message volumes to quantify spatiotemporal communication patterns in the New York Metro area before, during, and after the Virginia earthquake and Hurricane Irene in 2011. The earthquake produces an…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-06-08 Christopher Small , Richard Becker , Ramón Cáceres , Simon Urbanek

The phenomenon of aftershocks is studied in view of science of complexity. In particular, three different concepts are examined: (i) the complex-network representation of seismicity, (ii) the event-event correlations, and (iii) the effects…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-04 Sumiyoshi Abe , Norikazu Suzuki

Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions, the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete…

Geophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 J. Greenhough , I. G. Main

The observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-26 Agnes Helmstetter , Didier Sornette

The epidemic-type aftershock sequence model (ETAS) is a simple stochastic process modeling seismicity, based on the two best-established empirical laws, the Omori law (power law decay ~1/t^{1+\theta} of seismicity after an earthquake) and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 A. Helmstetter , D. Sornette

We have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of…