Related papers: CARMA Processes driven by Non-Gaussian Noise
In forecasting problems it is important to know whether or not recent events represent a regime change (low long-term predictive potential), or rather a local manifestation of longer term effects (potentially higher predictive potential).…
This paper is about vector autoregressive-moving average (VARMA) models with time-dependent coefficients to represent non-stationary time series. Contrarily to other papers in the univariate case, the coefficients depend on time but not on…
We consider graphical models based on a recursive system of linear structural equations. This implies that there is an ordering, $\sigma$, of the variables such that each observed variable $Y_v$ is a linear function of a variable specific…
We prove an existence and uniqueness result for generalized backward doubly stochastic differential equations driven by L\'evy processes with non-Lipschitz assumptions.
Celestial objects exhibit a wide range of variability in brightness at different wavebands. Surprisingly, the most common methods for characterizing time series in statistics -- parametric autoregressive modeling -- is rarely used to…
Nonlinear conservation laws driven by L\'evy processes have solutions which, in the case of supercritical nonlinearities, have an asymptotic behavior dictated by the solutions of the linearized equations. Thus the explicit representation of…
In the face of the upcoming 30th anniversary of econophysics, we review our contributions and other related works on the modeling of the long-range memory phenomenon in physical, economic, and other social complex systems. Our group has…
We introduce a new method to accurately and efficiently estimate the effective dynamics of collective variables in molecular simulations. Such reduced dynamics play an essential role in the study of a broad class of processes, ranging from…
We discuss a general Bayesian framework on modeling multidimensional function-valued processes by using a Gaussian process or a heavy-tailed process as a prior, enabling us to handle nonseparable and/or nonstationary covariance structure.…
We consider a stochastic fluid queue served by a constant rate server and driven by a process which is the local time of a certain Markov process. Such a stochastic system can be used as a model in a priority service system, especially when…
We develop an approach to Malliavin calculus for L\'evy processes from the perspective of expressing a random variable $Y$ by a functional $F$ mapping from the Skorohod space of c\`adl\`ag functions to $\mathbb{R}$, such that $Y=F(X)$ where…
We propose a parsimonious stochastic model for characterising the distributional and temporal properties of rainfall. The model is based on an integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by the Hougaard L\'evy process. We derive properties…
The objective in stochastic filtering is to reconstruct information about an unobserved (random) process, called the signal process, given the current available observations of a certain noisy transformation of that process. Usually X and Y…
We consider some special classes of L\'evy processes with no gaussian component whose L\'evy measure is of the type $\pi(dx)=e^{\gamma x}\nu(e^x-1) dx$, where $\nu$ is the density of the stable L\'evy measure and $\gamma$ is a positive…
Continuous-time Markov chains are used to model stochastic systems where transitions can occur at irregular times, e.g., birth-death processes, chemical reaction networks, population dynamics, and gene regulatory networks. We develop a…
The article studies non-Gaussian extensions of a recently discovered link between certain Gaussian random fields, expressed as solutions to stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), and Gaussian Markov random fields. The focus is…
Many studies on biological and soft matter systems report the joint presence of a linear mean-squared displacement and a non-Gaussian probability density exhibiting, for instance, exponential or stretched-Gaussian tails. This phenomenon is…
Likelihood-based estimation methods involve the normalising constant of the model distributions, expressed as a function of the parameter. However in many problems this function is not easily available, and then less efficient but more…
Full orbit dynamics of charged particles in a $3$-dimensional helical magnetic field in the presence of $\alpha$-stable L\'evy electrostatic fluctuations and linear friction modeling collisional Coulomb drag is studied via Monte Carlo…
A new forecasting method based on the concept of the profile predictive the likelihood function is proposed for discrete-valued processes. In particular, generalized autoregressive and moving average (GARMA) models for Poisson distributed…