Related papers: Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate
The Sun's variability is controlled by the progression and interaction of the magnetized systems that form the 22-year magnetic activity cycle (the "Hale Cycle'') as they march from their origin at $\sim$55 degrees latitude to the equator,…
Solar quasi-biennial oscillations with period range 0.6 to 4 years, are prominent in records of solar activity. Here we show that the 1.6 year quasi-biennial oscillation in solar activity has the exceptional feature of phase inversion…
Recent data on superflares on sun-like stars and radiocarbon data on solar activity in the past are both indicative of transient epochs of unusually high magnetic activity. We propose an explanation for the grand activity maxima in the…
Over 54 years of hourly mean value of solar wind velocity from 27 Nov. 1963 to 31 Dec. 2017 are used to investigate characteristics of the rotation period of solar wind through auto-correlation analysis. Solar wind of high velocity is found…
The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough…
The sunspot number data during the past 400 years indicates that both the profile and the amplitude of the solar cycle have large variations. Some precursors of the solar cycle were identified aiming to predict the solar cycle. The polar…
We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy…
The solar cycle is a complex phenomenon. To comprehensively understand it, we have to study various tracers. The most important component of this complex is the solar dynamo, which is understood as self-excitation of the solar magnetic…
Detailed models of the solar cycle require information about the starting time and rise time as well as the shape and amplitude of the cycle. However, none of these models includes a discussion of the variations in the length of the cycle,…
The reconstruction and prediction of solar activity is one of the current problems in dynamo theory and global climate modeling. We estimate the Total Solar Irradiance for the next hundred years based on the Least Square Support Vector…
Context: The Sun's polar fields and open flux around the time of activity minima have been considered to be strongly correlated with the strength of the subsequent maximum of solar activity. Aims: We aim to investigate the behavior of a…
There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…
The ideal magnetohydrodynamic torus instability can drive the eruption of coronal mass ejections. The critical threshold of magnetic field strength decay for the onset of the torus instability occurs at different heights in different solar…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an…
A striking feature of the solar cycle is that at the beginning, sunspots appear around mid-latitudes, and over time the latitudes of emergences migrate towards the equator.The maximum level of activity (e.g., sunspot number) varies from…
The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of time scales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on…
Sunspot Cycle 25 over 3 years past the cycle minimum of December 2019. At this point, curve-fitting becomes reliable and consistently indicates a maximum sunspot number of 135+/-10 - slightly larger than Cycle 24's maximum of 116.4, but…
The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have…
We present the results of a study of solar wind velocity and magnetic field correlation lengths over the last 35 years. The correlation length of the magnetic field magnitude lambda(|B|) increases on average by a factor of two at solar…
In the declining phase of the solar cycle, when the new-polarity fields of the solar poles are strengthened by the transport of same-signed magnetic flux from lower latitudes, the polar coronal holes expand and form non-axisymmetric…