Related papers: Unbiased risk estimation method for covariance est…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

In biometrics and related fields, the Cox proportional hazards model are widely used to analyze with covariate adjustment. However, when some covariates are not observed, an unbiased estimator usually cannot be obtained. Even if there are…

The Heuristic Ratio Estimation (HRE) approach proposes a new way of using the pairwise comparisons matrix. It allows the assumption that the weights of some alternatives (herein referred to as concepts) are known and fixed, hence the weight…

Graphical models are a framework for representing and exploiting prior conditional independence structures within distributions using graphs. In the Gaussian case, these models are directly related to the sparsity of the inverse covariance…

In statistical exercises where there are several candidate models, the traditional approach is to select one model using some data driven criterion and use that model for estimation, testing and other purposes, ignoring the variability of…

Off-policy estimation (OPE) methods enable unbiased offline evaluation of recommender systems, directly estimating the online reward some target policy would have obtained, from offline data and with statistical guarantees. The theoretical…

We consider estimating an expected infinite-horizon cumulative discounted cost/reward contingent on an underlying stochastic process by Monte Carlo simulation. An unbiased estimator based on truncating the cumulative cost at a random…

Gaussian process regression is used throughout statistics and machine learning for prediction and uncertainty quantification. A Gaussian process is specified by its mean and covariance functions. Many covariance functions, including…

With recent advances in high throughput technology, researchers often find themselves running a large number of hypothesis tests (thousands+) and esti- mating a large number of effect-sizes. Generally there is particular interest in those…

Nearly all estimators in statistical prediction come with an associated tuning parameter, in one way or another. Common practice, given data, is to choose the tuning parameter value that minimizes a constructed estimate of the prediction…

We consider the problems of estimation and optimization of two popular convex risk measures: utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR) and Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk. We extend these risk measures to cover possibly unbounded random…

This paper is concerned with the process of risk allocation for a generic multivariate model when the risk measure is chosen as the Value-at-Risk (VaR). We recast the traditional Euler contributions from an expectation conditional on an…

In an increasing number of applications, it is of interest to recover an approximately low-rank data matrix from noisy observations. This paper develops an unbiased risk estimate---holding in a Gaussian model---for any spectral estimator…

For rare events described in terms of Markov processes, truly unbiased estimation of the rare event probability generally requires the avoidance of numerical approximations of the Markov process. Recent work in the exact and…

The recently proposed Unbiased Online Recurrent Optimization algorithm (UORO, arXiv:1702.05043) uses an unbiased approximation of RTRL to achieve fully online gradient-based learning in RNNs. In this work we analyze the variance of the…

This paper examines the precision of estimators of Quantile-Based Risk Measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall, Spectral Risk Measures). It first addresses the question of how to estimate the precision of these estimators, and proposes…

Measurement error arises through a variety of mechanisms. A rich literature exists on the bias introduced by covariate measurement error and on methods of analysis to address this bias. By comparison, less attention has been given to errors…

We aim to quantitatively measure the practical usability of medical image segmentation models: to what extent, how often, and on which samples a model's predictions can be used/trusted. We first propose a measure, Correctness-Confidence…

With nonignorable nonresponse, an effective method to construct valid estimators of population parameters is to use a covariate vector called instrument that can be excluded from the nonresponse propensity but are still useful covariate…

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for detecting exposure-outcome associations given covariates across different parts of the outcome's distribution, but has two major limitations when the aim is to infer the effect of an exposure.…