Related papers: Binomial ARMA count series from renewal processes
Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…
In this paper we propose a new optimization model for maximum likelihood estimation of causal and invertible ARMA models. Through a set of numerical experiments we show how our proposed model outperforms, both in terms of quality of the…
In this work we introduce a method for estimating entropy rate and entropy production rate from finite symbolic time series. From the point of view of statistics, estimating entropy from a finite series can be interpreted as a problem of…
In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…
A binomial time series describes binary behaviors of individuals within a group, which depend on group behaviors in the past. Binomial time series data is widely applied in fields such as infection tracking and behavior analysis. In this…
A binary renewal process is a stochastic process $\{X_n\}$ taking values in $\{0,1\}$ where the lengths of the runs of 1's between successive zeros are independent. After observing ${X_0,X_1,...,X_n}$ one would like to predict the future…
Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are widely used for analyzing time series data. However, standard likelihood-based inference methodology for ARMA models has avoidable limitations. We show that currently accepted standards for…
We propose a novel and efficient iterative two-stage variable selection approach for multivariate sparse GLARMA models, which can be used for modelling multivariate discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining…
Linear processes on functional spaces were born about fifteen years ago. And this original topic went through the same fast development as the other areas of functional data modeling such as PCA or regression. They aim at generalizing to…
We propose a new method to construct confidence intervals for quantities that are associated with a stationary time series, which avoids direct estimation of the asymptotic variances. Unlike the existing tuning-parameter-dependent…
In this paper we study a class of dynamical systems generated by iterations of multivariate polynomials and estimate the degreegrowth of these iterations. We use these estimates to bound exponential sums along the orbits of these dynamical…
It is known that in some cases a Random Access Machine (RAM) benefits from having an additional input that is an arbitrary number, satisfying only the criterion of being sufficiently large. This is known as the ARAM model. We introduce a…
In this work we present a model for computation of random processes in digital computers which solves the problem of periodic sequences and hidden errors produced by correlations. We show that systems with non-invertible non-linearities can…
A Pseudo-Random Number Generator (PRNG) is any algorithm generating a sequence of numbers approximating properties of random numbers. These numbers are widely employed in mid-level cryptography and in software applications. Test suites are…
In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…
Periodicity is a common feature of time series. For finite-dimensional data, periodic autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models have been extensively studied. In functional time series analysis, AR models have been extended to incorporate…
The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is a classical, and arguably one of the most studied approaches to model time series data. It has compelling theoretical properties and is widely used among practitioners. More recent deep…
Generative models for multivariate time series are essential for data augmentation, simulation, and privacy preservation, yet current state-of-the-art diffusion-based approaches are slow and limited to fixed-length windows. We propose…
In this paper, we give a AR$(1)$ type of characterization covering all multivariate strictly stationary processes indexed by the set of integers. Consequently, we derive continuous time algebraic Riccati equations for the parameter matrix…
Prediction for high dimensional time series is a challenging task due to the curse of dimensionality problem. Classical parametric models like ARIMA or VAR require strong modeling assumptions and time stationarity and are often…