Related papers: Spurious trend switching phenomena in financial ma…
The available liquidity at any time in financial markets falls largely short of the typical size of the orders that institutional investors would trade. In order to reduce the impact on prices due to the execution of large orders, traders…
This paper defines theoretical lower bounds of uncertainty of observations of macroeconomic variables that depend on statistical moments and correlations of random values and volumes of market trades. Any econometric assessments of…
Power law or generalized polynomial regressions with unknown real-valued exponents and coefficients, and weakly dependent errors, are considered for observations over time, space or space--time. Consistency and asymptotic normality of…
In this paper, we propose a new dynamical model to study the two-stage volatility evolution of stock market index after extreme events, and find that the volatility after extreme events follows a stretched exponential decay in the initial…
Large variations in stock prices happen with sufficient frequency to raise doubts about existing models, which all fail to account for non-Gaussian statistics. We construct simple models of a stock market, and argue that the large…
We consider economic obstacles that limit the reliability and accuracy of value-at-risk (VaR). Investors who manage large market transactions should take into account the impact of the randomness of large trade volumes on predictions of…
Macroeconomic fluctuations and the narratives that shape them form a mutually reinforcing cycle: public discourse can spur behavioural changes leading to economic shifts, which then result in changes in the stories that propagate. We show…
A dynamical model is introduced for the formation of a bullish or bearish trends driving an asset price in a given market. Initially, each agent decides to buy or sell according to its personal opinion, which results from the combination of…
Identifying behavior that is relatively invariant under different conditions is a challenging task in far-from-equilibrium complex systems. As an example of how the existence of a semi-invariant signature can be masked by the heterogeneity…
Time reversal invariance can be summarized as follows: no difference can be measured if a sequence of events is run forward or backward in time. Because price time series are dominated by a randomness that hides possible structures and…
We use the statistical properties of Shannon entropy estimator and Kullback-Leibler divergence to study the predictability of ultra-high frequency financial data. We develop a statistical test for the predictability of a sequence based on…
A power-law distance-dependent biased random walk model with a tuning parameter ($\sigma$) is introduced in which finite mean first passage times are realizable if $\sigma$ is less than a critical value $\sigma_c$. We perform numerical…
Technical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns of price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used…
In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of…
We adapt continuous time random walk (CTRW) formalism to describe asset price evolution and discuss some of the problems that can be treated using this approach. We basically focus on two aspects: (i) the derivation of the price…
It is widely accepted that there is strong persistence in the volatility of financial time series. The origin of the observed persistence, or long-range memory, is still an open problem as the observed phenomenon could be a spurious effect.…
The observed general time-asymmetric behavior of macroscopic systems -- embodied in the second law of thermodynamics -- arises naturally from time-symmetric microscopic laws due to the great disparity between macro and micro-scales. More…
What happens when a continuously evolving stochastic process is interrupted with large changes at random intervals $\tau$ distributed as a power-law $\sim \tau^{-(1+\alpha)};\alpha>0$? Modeling the stochastic process by diffusion and the…
A microeconomic approach is proposed to derive the fluctuations of risky asset price, where the market participants are modeled as prospect trading agents. As asset price is generated by the temporary equilibrium between demand and supply,…
In Part II of this paper, we concentrate our analysis on the price dynamical model with the moving average rules developed in Part I of this paper. By decomposing the excessive demand function, we reveal that it is the interplay between…