Related papers: Spurious trend switching phenomena in financial ma…
Stock prices are observed to be random walks in time despite a strong, long term memory in the signs of trades (buys or sells). Lillo and Farmer have recently suggested that these correlations are compensated by opposite long ranged…
Synchronising a database of stock specific news with 5 years worth of order book data on 300 stocks, we show that abnormal price movements following news releases (exogenous) exhibit markedly different dynamical features from those arising…
Statistical mechanics provides a useful analog for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including power markets and the power systems they intend to govern. Transaction-based control is founded on the conjecture that the…
Detection of power-law behavior and studies of scaling exponents uncover the characteristics of complexity in many real world phenomena. The complexity of financial markets has always presented challenging issues and provided interesting…
This paper shows that jumps in financial asset prices are often erroneously identified and are, in fact, rare events accounting for a very small proportion of the total price variation. We apply new econometric techniques to a comprehensive…
We study the temporal fluctuations in time-dependent stock prices (both individual and composite) as a stochastic phenomenon using general techniques and methods of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. In particular, we analyze stock price…
More than one billion data sampled with different frequencies from several financial instruments were investigated with the aim of testing whether they involve power law. As a result, a known power law with the power exponent around -4 was…
We study persistent random walk with time dependent velocity reversal probabilities and identify a criterion for a non-equilibrium dynamical transition. As a representative example, we consider a power law reversal probability $p(t)\sim…
This paper studies stochastic mechanisms under which light-tailed latent price dynamics yield realized prices with power-law tails. The realized price is modeled as $P_T=e^{X_T}$, where $X$ is a Markov-modulated L\'evy process and $T$ is…
A length dependence of the effective mobility in the form of a power law, B ~ L^(1-1/alpha) is observed in dispersive transport in amorphous substances, with 0 < \alpha < 1. We deduce this behavior as a simple consequence of the statistical…
Complex systems comprise a large number of interacting elements, whose dynamics is not always a priori known. In these cases -- in order to uncover their key features -- we have to turn to empirical methods, one of which was recently…
This note continues investigation of randomness-type properties emerging in idealized financial markets with continuous price processes. It is shown, without making any probabilistic assumptions, that the strong variation exponent of…
The random values and volumes of consecutive trades made at the exchange with shares of security determine its mean, variance, and higher statistical moments. The volume weighted average price (VWAP) is the simplest example of such a…
This paper proposes a theory of stock market predictability patterns based on a model of heterogeneous beliefs. In a discrete finite time framework, some agents receive news about an asset's fundamental value through a noisy signal. The…
We measure the influence of different time-scales on the dynamics of financial market data. This is obtained by decomposing financial time series into simple oscillations associated with distinct time-scales. We propose two new time-varying…
In high-frequency financial data not only returns, but also waiting times between consecutive trades are random variables. Therefore, it is possible to apply continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) as phenomenological models of the…
In high-frequency financial data not only returns, but also waiting times between consecutive trades are random variables. Therefore, it is possible to apply continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) as phenomenological models of the…
Statistical properties of an order book and the effect they have on price dynamics were studied using the high-frequency NASDAQ Level II data. It was observed that the size distribution of marketable orders (transaction sizes) has power law…
We investigate the mechanisms behind the power-law distribution of stock returns using artificial market simulations. While traditional financial theory assumes Gaussian price fluctuations, empirical studies consistently show that the tails…
We introduce the stochastic multiplicative point process modelling trading activity of financial markets. Such a model system exhibits power-law spectral density S(f) ~ 1/f**beta, scaled as power of frequency for various values of beta…