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Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) prevalent for modeling stochastic population dynamics in ecology, biology, epidemiology, and many other fields. The transient or finite-time behavior of these systems…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-24 Achal Awasthi , Jason Xu

Radical shifts in the genetic composition of large cell populations are rare events with quite low probabilities, which direct numerical simulations generally fail to evaluate accurately. In this paper, we develop a theoretical large…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-16 Robert Azencott , Brett Geiger , Ilya Timofeyev

We propose a new distance metric for DNA sequences, which can be defined on any evolutionary Markov model with infinitesimal generator matrix Q. That is the new metric can be defined under existing models such as Jukes-Cantor model,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-02-12 Viswanath. C. Narayanan

Analyses of serially-sampled data often begin with the assumption that the observations represent discrete samples from a latent continuous-time stochastic process. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is one such generative model whose…

Applications · Statistics 2009-10-12 Asger Hobolth , Eric A. Stone

Matryoshka dolls, the traditional Russian nesting figurines, are known world-wide for each doll's encapsulation of a sequence of smaller dolls. In this paper, we identify a large class of Markov process whose moments are easy to compute by…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-26 Andrew Daw , Jamol Pender

Molecular Dynamics (MD) is a powerful computational microscope for probing protein functions. However, the need for fine-grained integration and the long timescales of biomolecular events make MD computationally expensive. To address this,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Kacper Kapuśniak , Cristian Gabellini , Michael Bronstein , Prudencio Tossou , Francesco Di Giovanni

(Multi-type) branching processes are a natural and well-studied model for generating random infinite trees. Branching processes feature both nondeterministic and probabilistic branching, generalizing both transition systems and Markov…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2021-07-06 Stefan Kiefer , Pavel Semukhin , Cas Widdershoven

We introduce the concept evolutionary semigroups on path spaces, generalizing the notion of transition semigroups to possibly non-Markovian stochastic processes. We study the basic properties of evolutionary semigroups and, in particular,…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-17 Robert Denk , Markus Kunze , Michael Kupper

Deriving the time-dependent expected reward function associated with a continuous-time Markov chain involves the computation of its transient deviation matrix. In this paper we focus on the special case of a finite quasi-birth-and-death…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-10 Sarah Dendievel , Sophie Hautphenne , Guy Latouche , Peter Taylor

More than ever, today we are left with the abundance of molecular data outpaced by the advancements of the phylogenomic methods. Especially in the case of presence of many genes over a set of species under the phylogeny question, more…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-29 Ali Amiryousefi

We are interested in the study of models describing the evolution of a polymorphic population with mutation and selection in the specific scales of the biological framework of adaptive dynamics. The population size is assumed to be large…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-05 Nicolas Champagnat , Sylvie Méléard

Understanding the evolution of binary traits, which affects the birth and survival of species and also the rate of molecular evolution, remains challenging. A typical example is the evolution of mating systems in plant species. In this…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-04-04 Daniah Tahir , Sylvain Glémin , Martin Lascoux , Ingemar Kaj

We study a class of Markovian systems of $N$ elements taking values in $[0,1]$ that evolve in discrete time $t$ via randomized replacement rules based on the ranks of the elements. These rank-driven processes are inspired by variants of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-06 Michael Grinfeld , Philip A. Knight , Andrew R. Wade

A large class of linear memory differential equations in one dimension, where the evolution depends on the whole history, can be equivalently described as a projection of a Markov process living in a higher dimensional space. Starting with…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2018-04-09 Artur Stephan , Holger Stephan

Consider a system evolving according to an absorbing discrete-time Markov chain with known transition matrix. The state of the system is observed at two points in time, separated by an unknown number of generations. We are interested in…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-04 Bianca De Sanctis , A. P. Jason de Koning

Inference of evolutionary trees and rates from biological sequences is commonly performed using continuous-time Markov models of character change. The Markov process evolves along an unknown tree while observations arise only from the tips…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-02-01 Elizabeth S. Allman , Cecile Ane , John A. Rhodes

The discrete class algorithm presented in this paper is an efficient simulation tool for stochastic processes governed by a reasonably small set of transition rates. The algorithm is presented, its performance compared to prevailing methods…

Computational Physics · Physics 2008-02-03 Hans E. Plesser , Dietmar Wendt

A general theory is developed to study individual based models which are discrete in time. We begin by constructing a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-06-03 Joseph D. Challenger , Duccio Fanelli , Alan J. McKane

We study discrete time Markov processes with periodic or open boundary conditions and with inhomogeneous rates in the bulk. The Markov matrices are given by the inhomogeneous transfer matrices introduced previously to prove the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-10-30 N. Crampe , K. Mallick , E. Ragoucy , M. Vanicat

Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with ubiquitous applications. A general difficulty in statistical inference under partially observed CTMC models arises in computing transition probabilities when the…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-10 Jason Xu , Vladimir N. Minin