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In stochastic variational inference, the variational Bayes objective function is optimized using stochastic gradient approximation, where gradients computed on small random subsets of data are used to approximate the true gradient over the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-19 Linda S. L. Tan , David J. Nott

Building spatial process models that capture nonstationary behavior while delivering computationally efficient inference is challenging. Nonstationary spatially varying kernels (see, e.g., Paciorek, 2003) offer flexibility and richness, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Sébastien Coube-Sisqueille , Sudipto Banerjee , Benoît Liquet

Macroscopic models for spatially extended systems under random influences are often described by stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Some techniques for understanding solutions of such equations, such as estimating…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2009-03-27 Jinqiao Duan

The paper considers so-called adaptive estimations of regression, distribution density and spectral density of a Gaussian stationary sequence, asymptotically optimal in order at a growing number of observation on any regular subspace…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Eugene Ostrovsky , Leonid Sirota

We establish a general form of explicit, input-dependent, measure-valued warpings for learning nonstationary kernels. While stationary kernels are ubiquitous and simple to use, they struggle to adapt to functions that vary in smoothness…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-12 Anthony Tompkins , Rafael Oliveira , Fabio Ramos

Density regression provides a flexible strategy for modeling the distribution of a response variable $Y$ given predictors $\mathbf{X}=(X_1,\ldots,X_p)$ by letting that the conditional density of $Y$ given $\mathbf{X}$ as a completely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

We propose a data-driven approach to quantify the uncertainty of models constructed by kernel methods. Our approach minimizes the needed distributional assumptions, hence, instead of working with, for example, Gaussian processes or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-06 Balázs Csanád Csáji , Krisztián Balázs Kis

This paper introduces an iterative algorithm for training nonparametric additive models that enjoys favorable memory storage and computational requirements. The algorithm can be viewed as the functional counterpart of stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-01 Xin Chen , Jason M. Klusowski

In the context of uncertainty quantification, computational models are required to be repeatedly evaluated. This task is intractable for costly numerical models. Such a problem turns out to be even more severe for stochastic simulators, the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-11-29 X. Zhu , B. Sudret

For a general class of priors based on random series basis expansion, we develop the Bayes Lepski's method to estimate unknown regression function. In this approach, the series truncation point is determined based on a stopping rule that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-21 William Weimin Yoo , Aad W. van der Vaart

The estimation of the L\'{e}vy density, the infinite-dimensional parameter controlling the jump dynamics of a L\'{e}vy process, is considered here under a discrete-sampling scheme. In this setting, the jumps are latent variables, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-04-25 José E. Figueroa-López

We develop a probabilistic characterisation of trajectorial expansion rates in non-autonomous stochastic dynamical systems that can be defined over a finite time interval and used for the subsequent uncertainty quantification in Lagrangian…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-12-24 Michal Branicki , Kenneth Uda

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

This paper enhances the classical Solow model of economic growth by integrating L\'evy noise, a type of non-Gaussian stochastic perturbation, to capture the inherent uncertainties in economic systems. The extended model examines the impact…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-03 Almaz Abebe , Shenglan Yuanb , Daniel Tesfay , James Brannan

The asymptotic distribution of a wide class of V- and U-statistics with estimated parameters is derived in the case when the kernel is not necessarily differentiable along the parameter. The results have their application in goodness-of-fit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-30 Marija Cuparić , Bojana Milošević , Marko Obradović

We study the asymptotic behavior of kernel estimators of asymptotic variances (or long-run variances) for a class of adaptive Markov chains. The convergence is studied both in $L^p$ and almost surely. The results also apply to Markov chains…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-05-17 Yves F. Atchadé

We show that kernel-based quadrature rules for computing integrals can be seen as a special case of random feature expansions for positive definite kernels, for a particular decomposition that always exists for such kernels. We provide a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-10 Francis Bach

Density estimation in high-dimensional settings is an important and challenging statistical problem.Traditional methods based on kernel smoothing are inefficient in high dimensions due to the difficulties in specifying appropriate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Ruitong Zhang , Ke Deng

We construct $\bf genRBF$ kernel, which generalizes the classical Gaussian RBF kernel to the case of incomplete data. We model the uncertainty contained in missing attributes making use of data distribution and associate every point with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-03 Łukasz Struski , Marek Śmieja , Jacek Tabor

Stochastic processes play a key role for modeling a huge variety of transport problems out of equilibrium, with manifold applications throughout the natural and social sciences. To formulate models of stochastic dynamics the conventional…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-07-25 Massimiliano Giona , Andrea Cairoli , Rainer Klages