Related papers: A phase transition for measure-valued SIR epidemic…
Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes $(Z(t))$ on $\mathbb{Z}^p$ form a usual set-up for modeling $SIR$-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on $(Z(t))$ is not easy to be achieved.…
Much of the research on the behavior of the SIS model on networks has concerned the infinite size limit; in particular the phase transition between a state where outbreaks can reach a finite fraction of the population, and a state where…
We consider an epidemiological SIR model and a positive threshold $M$. Using a parametric expression for the solution curve of the SIR model and the Lambert W function, we establish necessary and sufficient conditions on the basic…
Over the past several decades there has been a proliferation of epidemiological models with ordinary derivatives replaced by fractional derivatives in an an-hoc manner. These models may be mathematically interesting but their relevance is…
We consider continuous space-time decay-surge population models which are semi- stochastic processes for which deterministically declining populations, bound to fade away, are rein- vigorated at random times by bursts or surges of random…
We introduce an interacting particle system that models the spread of an epidemic in terms of heterogeneous diffusive dynamics, rather than exogenous contact and transmission rates at the population level as in classical compartmental…
The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model has been used extensively to model disease spread and other processes. Despite the widespread usage of this ordinary differential equation (ODE) based model which represents the mean-field…
Importance sampling (IS) is a Monte Carlo technique that relies on weighted samples, simulated from a proposal distribution, to estimate intractable integrals. The quality of the estimators improves with the number of samples. However, for…
Given a real valued and time-inhomogeneous martingale diffusion X, we investigate the properties of functions defined by the conditional expectation f(t,X_t)=E[g(X_T)|F_t]. We show that whenever g is monotonic or Lipschitz continuous then…
For a class of one-dimensional determinantal point processes including those induced by orthogonal projections with integrable kernels satisfying a growth condition, it is proved that their conditional measures, with respect to the…
We analyze thermodynamic models for fluid systems in equilibrium based on a virial expansion of the internal energy in terms of the volume density. We prove that the models, formulated for finite-size systems with $N$ particles, are exactly…
In this paper we analyze and classify the dynamics of SIQRS epidemiological models with susceptible, infected, quarantined, and recovered classes, where the recovered individuals can become reinfected. We are able to treat general incidence…
We study continuous-time birth-death type processes, where individuals have independent and identically distributed lifetimes, according to a random variable Q, with E[Q]=1, and where the birth rate if the population is currently in state…
In this paper, we study Gaussian multiplicative chaos in the critical case. We show that the so-called derivative martingale, introduced in the context of branching Brownian motions and branching random walks, converges almost surely (in…
We study the continuous absorbing-state phase transition in the one-dimensional diffusive epidemic process via mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulation. In this model, particles of two species (A and B) hop on a lattice and undergo…
New proofs are given of the existence of the compensator (or dual predictable projection) of a locally integrable c\'adl\'ag adapted process of finite variation and of the existence of the quadratic variation process for a c\'adl\'ag local…
We study the SIRS process, a continuous-time Markov chain modeling the spread of infections on graphs. In this model, vertices are either susceptible, infected, or recovered. Each infected vertex becomes recovered at rate 1 and infects each…
Small-space and large-time estimates and asymptotic expansion of the distribution function and (the derivatives of) the density function of hitting times of points for symmetric L\'evy processes are studied. The L\'evy measure is assumed to…
A continuous-time particle system on the real line satisfying the branching property and an exponential integrability condition is called a branching L\'evy process, and its law is characterized by a triplet $(\sigma^2,a,\Lambda)$. We…
Consider a locally finite Dawson-Watanabe superprocess $\xi=(\xi_t)$ in $\mathsf{R}^d$ with $d\geq2$. Our main results include some recursive formulas for the moment measures of $\xi$, with connections to the uniform Brownian tree, a…