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We study sequential prediction of real-valued, arbitrary and unknown sequences under the squared error loss as well as the best parametric predictor out of a large, continuous class of predictors. Inspired by recent results from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-01-24 N. Denizcan Vanli , Suleyman S. Kozat

For a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables having a distribution function with an unknown parameter from a set $\Theta \subset \mathbf{R}^d$, we prove an analogue of the lower bound of Bahadur asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-06 Mikhail Ermakov

Empirical researchers and decision-makers spanning various domains frequently seek profound insights into the long-term impacts of interventions. While the significance of long-term outcomes is undeniable, an overemphasis on them may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Peng Wu , Ziyu Shen , Feng Xie , Zhongyao Wang , Chunchen Liu , Yan Zeng

The paper discusses inference techniques for semiparametric models based on suitable versions of inference functions. The text contains two parts. In the first part, we review the optimality theory for non-parametric models based on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Rodrigo Labouriau

In semi-supervised learning, the prevailing understanding suggests that observing additional unlabeled samples improves estimation accuracy for linear parameters only in the case of model misspecification. In this work, we challenge such a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Kai Chen , Yuqian Zhang

This paper introduces the first theoretical framework for quantifying the efficiency and performance gain opportunity size of adaptive inference algorithms. We provide new approximate and exact bounds for the achievable efficiency and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-08 Soheil Hor , Ying Qian , Mert Pilanci , Amin Arbabian

Many practitioners who use the EM algorithm complain that it is sometimes slow. When does this happen, and what can be done about it? In this paper, we study the general class of bound optimization algorithms - including…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Ruslan R Salakhutdinov , Sam T Roweis , Zoubin Ghahramani

Standard meta-learning for representation learning aims to find a common representation to be shared across multiple tasks. The effectiveness of these methods is often limited when the nuances of the tasks' distribution cannot be captured…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-31 Giulia Denevi , Massimiliano Pontil , Carlo Ciliberto

We give a finite-sample analysis of predictive inference procedures after model selection in regression with random design. The analysis is focused on a statistically challenging scenario where the number of potentially important…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-26 Hannes Leeb

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-27 Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

We consider the problem of estimating confidence intervals for the mean of a random variable, where the goal is to produce the smallest possible interval for a given number of samples. While minimax optimal algorithms are known for this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-19 Shengjia Zhao , Christopher Yeh , Stefano Ermon

In this work, we develop a simple algorithm for semi-supervised regression. The key idea is to use the top eigenfunctions of integral operator derived from both labeled and unlabeled examples as the basis functions and learn the prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Ming Ji , Tianbao Yang , Binbin Lin , Rong Jin , Jiawei Han

For multi-valued functions---such as when the conditional distribution on targets given the inputs is multi-modal---standard regression approaches are not always desirable because they provide the conditional mean. Modal regression…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-30 Yangchen Pan , Ehsan Imani , Martha White , Amir-massoud Farahmand

Nonignorable missingness and noncompliance can occur even in well-designed randomized experiments making the intervention effect that the experiment was designed to estimate nonidentifiable. Nonparametric causal bounds provide a way to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-13 Erin E. Gabriel , Arvid Sjölander , Michael C. Sachs

We study the problem of parameter-free stochastic optimization, inquiring whether, and under what conditions, do fully parameter-free methods exist: these are methods that achieve convergence rates competitive with optimally tuned methods,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Amit Attia , Tomer Koren

We develop a practical and novel method for inference on intersection bounds, namely bounds defined by either the infimum or supremum of a parametric or nonparametric function, or equivalently, the value of a linear programming problem with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-06 Victor Chernozhukov , Sokbae Lee , Adam M. Rosen

Semi-supervised datasets are ubiquitous across diverse domains where obtaining fully labeled data is costly or time-consuming. The prevalence of such datasets has consistently driven the demand for new tools and methods that exploit the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Ilmun Kim , Larry Wasserman , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Matey Neykov

In this article, we consider an imputation method to handle missing response values based on semiparametric quantile regression estimation. In the proposed method, the missing response values are generated using the estimated conditional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-15 Senniang Chen , Cindy L Yu

Statistical machine learning methods often face the challenge of limited data available from the population of interest. One remedy is to leverage data from auxiliary source populations, which share some conditional distributions or are…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-11 Hongxiang Qiu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , Edgar Dobriban

Given additional distributional information in the form of moment restrictions, kernel density and distribution function estimators with implied generalised empirical likelihood probabilities as weights achieve a reduction in variance due…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-08 Vitaliy Oryshchenko , Richard J. Smith