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Continuous-time state-space models (SSMs) are flexible tools for analysing irregularly sampled sequential observations that are driven by an underlying state process. Corresponding applications typically involve restrictive assumptions…
Many epidemic models are naturally defined as individual-based models: where we track the state of each individual within a susceptible population. Inference for individual-based models is challenging due to the high-dimensional state-space…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), also known as particle filters, has been widely accepted as a powerful computational tool for making inference with dynamical systems. A key step in SMC is resampling, which plays the role of steering the…
The number of resident space objects is rising at an alarming rate. Mega-constellations and breakup events are proliferating in most orbital regimes, and safe navigation is becoming increasingly problematic. It is important to be able to…
In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…
We derive the optimal proposal density for Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) (or Population Monte Carlo, PMC). The criterion for optimality is that the SMC/PMC-ABC sampler maximise the effective…
We present approximate algorithms for performing smoothing in a class of high-dimensional state-space models via sequential Monte Carlo methods ("particle filters"). In high dimensions, a prohibitively large number of Monte Carlo samples…
In this paper, we analyse a method for approximating the distribution function and density of a random variable that depends in a non-trivial way on a possibly high number of independent random variables, each with support on the whole real…
In Bayesian inference, we seek to compute information about random variables such as moments or quantiles on the basis of {available data} and prior information. When the distribution of random variables is {intractable}, Monte Carlo (MC)…
The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…
Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) is now a popular method for performing Bayesian statistical inference on challenging state space models (SSMs) with unknown static parameters. It uses a particle filter (PF) at each iteration of an…
Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is one of the most powerful sequence models. Despite the strong performance, however, it lacks the nice interpretability as in state space models. In this paper, we present a way to combine the best of both…
Recursive Monte Carlo filters, also called particle filters, are a powerful tool to perform computations in general state space models. We discuss and compare the accept--reject version with the more common sampling importance resampling…
Efficient sampling of many-dimensional and multimodal density functions is a task of great interest in many research fields. We describe an algorithm that allows parallelizing inherently serial Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by…
Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and…
Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells. These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not…
In image processing, solving inverse problems is the task of finding plausible reconstructions of an image that was corrupted by some (usually known) degradation operator. Commonly, this process is done using a generative image model that…
Calibrating statistical models using Bayesian inference often requires both accurate and timely estimates of parameters of interest. Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (p-MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo Squared (SMC$^2$) are two methods…
Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling has become a standard technique for exploring the posterior distribution of cosmological parameters constrained by observations of CMB anisotropies. Given an infinite amount of time, any MCMC sampler will…
Pricing options is an important problem in financial engineering. In many scenarios of practical interest, financial option prices associated to an underlying asset reduces to computing an expectation w.r.t.~a diffusion process. In general,…