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We explore credit risk pricing by modeling equity as a call option and debt as the difference between the firm's asset value and a put option, following the structural framework of the Merton model. Our approach proceeds in two stages:…
This paper is a contribution to the Proceedings of the Workshop Complexity, Metastability and Nonextensivity held in Erice 20-26 July 2004, to be published by World Scientific. We propose a generalization to Merton's model for evaluating…
This article proposes a method for measuring the latent risks involved in the recovery process of non performing loans in financial institutions and business firms that deal with collection and recovery processes. To that end, we apply the…
In this paper we deal with the optimal bankruptcy problem for an agent who can optimally allocate her consumption rate, the amount of capital invested in the risky asset as well as her leisure time. In our framework, the agent is endowed by…
The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical…
We consider a structural default model in an interconnected banking network as in Lipton [International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 19(6), 2016], with mutual obligations between each pair of banks. We analyse the model…
Diffusion in a linear potential in the presence of position-dependent killing is used to mimic a default process. Different assumptions regarding transport coefficients, initial conditions, and elasticity of the killing measure lead to…
We extend the Vasi\v{c}ek loan portfolio model to a setting where liabilities fluctuate randomly and asset values may be subject to systemic jump risk. We derive the probability distribution of the percentage loss of a uniform portfolio and…
We theorize the financial health of a company and the risk of its default. A company is financially healthy as long as its equilibrium in the financial system is maintained, which depends on the cost attributable to the probability that…
The risk of a credit portfolio depends crucially on correlations between the probability of default (PD) in different economic sectors. Often, PD correlations have to be estimated from relatively short time series of default rates, and the…
A problem of optimal debt management is modeled as a noncooperative game between a borrower and a pool of lenders, in infinite time horizon with exponential discount. The yearly income of the borrower is governed by a stochastic process.…
We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…
We investigate the impact of available information on the estimation of the default probability within a generalized structural model for credit risk. The traditional structural model where default is triggered when the value of the firm's…
This article aims to explore an empirical approach to analyze the macroeconomicsdeterminants of default of borrowers. For this purpose, we have measured the impact of the adverse economic conditions on the degradation of the credit…
Intuitively, the default risk of a single borrower is higher when her or his assets and debt are denominated in different currencies. Additionally, the default dependence of borrowers with assets and debt in different currencies should be…
The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network…
Mortgage default rates, on the one hand, serve as a measure of economic health to support decision-making by insurance companies, and on the other hand, is a key risk factor in the asset-liability management (ALM) practice, as mortgage…
Interbank contagion can theoretically exacerbate losses in a financial system and lead to additional cascade defaults during downturn. In this paper we produce default analysis using both regression and neural network models to verify…
We present a multilayer network model for credit risk assessment. Our model accounts for multiple connections between borrowers (such as their geographic location and their economic activity) and allows for explicitly modelling the…
We propose a novel credit default model that takes into account the impact of macroeconomic information and contagion effect on the defaults of obligors. We use a set-valued Markov chain to model the default process, which is the set of all…