Related papers: Multivariate Force of Mortality
To better understand mortality change with age capturing the variability in individuals' rates of aging, we performed comprehensive analysis of statistical properties of a cumulative index of age-associated disorders (deficits), called a…
This paper aims to develop practical applications of the model for the highly technical measure-valued populations developed by the authors in \cite{FanEtal20}. We consider the problem of estimation of parameters in the general age and…
Many existing mortality models follow the framework of classical factor models, such as the Lee-Carter model and its variants. Latent common factors in factor models are defined as time-related mortality indices (such as $\kappa_t$ in the…
Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under…
Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…
Functional data analysis, which handles data arising from curves, surfaces, volumes, manifolds and beyond in a variety of scientific fields, is a rapidly developing area in modern statistics and data science in the recent decades. The…
There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…
The significance of mortality modeling extends across multiple research areas, ranging from life insurance valuation to optimal lifetime decision-making. Existing approaches, such as mortality laws and factor-based models, often fall short…
Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…
Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, ethnic group and socioeconomic status. In making social policies and pricing annuity at national and subnational levels, it is important not…
In life insurance, life tables are used to estimate the survival distribution of individuals from a given population. However, these tables only provide survival probabilities at integer ages but no information about the distribution of…
The concept of random deaths in a computational model for population dynamics is critically examined. We claim that it is just an artifact, albeit useful, of computational models to limit the size of the populations and has no biological…
The area of population dynamics has a rich history of the development and analysis of models of biological and social phenomena using ordinary differential equations. This paper describes a method for understanding the influence one…
W. D. Hamilton's celebrated formula for the age-specific force of natural selection furnishes predictions for senescent mortality due to mutation accumulation, at the price of reliance on a linear approximation. Applying to Hamilton's…
Mortality displacement is the concept that deaths are moved forward in time (e.g., a few days, several months, and years) by exposure from when they would occur without the exposure, which is common in environmental time-series studies.…
Infant deaths and old age deaths are very different. The former are mostly due to severe congenital malformations of one or a small number of specific organs. On the contrary, old age deaths are largely the outcome of a long process of…
The two primary causal dimensions of age-related disease are rate and function. Change in rate of disease development shifts the age of onset. Change in physiological function provides necessary steps in disease progression. A causal factor…
In most cases, mortality is analysed considering summary indicators (e.~g. $e_0$ or $e^{\dagger}_0$) that either focus on a specific mortality component or pool all component-specific information in one measure. This can be a limitation,…
How to select variables and identify functional forms for continuous variables is a key concern when creating a multivariable model. Ad hoc 'traditional' approaches to variable selection have been in use for at least 50 years. Similarly,…
The focus of a survival study is partly on the distribution of survival times, and partly on the health or quality of life of patients while they live. Health varies over time, and survival is the most basic aspect of health, so the two…