Related papers: Estimation for general birth-death processes
In cryo-electron microscopy (EM), molecular structures are determined from large numbers of projection images of individual particles. To harness the full power of this single-molecule information, we use the Bayesian inference of EM…
Research on the birth and evolution of life are reviewed with reference to the maximum entropy production principle (MEPP). It has been shown that this principle is essential for consistent understanding of the birth and evolution of life.…
Continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) describe structured stochastic processes with finitely many states that evolve over continuous time. A CTBN is a directed (possibly cyclic) dependency graph over a set of variables, each of which…
In recent years, methods of approximate parameter estimation have attracted considerable interest in complex problems where exact likelihoods are hard to obtain. In their most basic form, Bayesian methods such as Approximate Bayesian…
We investigate parameter estimation in subcritical continuous-time birth-and-death processes with multiple births. We show that the classical maximum likelihood estimators for the model parameters, based on the continuous observation of a…
Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes (MJPs) where available observations relate to either system states or jumps typically relies on data-augmentation Markov Chain Monte Carlo. State-of-the-art developments involve representing MJP…
The correlated binomial (CB) distribution was proposed by Luce\~no (Computational Statistics $\&$ Data Analysis, 20, 1995, 511-520) as an alternative to the binomial distribution for the analysis of the data in the presence of correlations…
Neural networks with a large number of parameters admit a mean-field description, which has recently served as a theoretical explanation for the favorable training properties of "overparameterized" models. In this regime, gradient descent…
We propose a method for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of a Markov-Modulated Jump-Diffusion Model (MMJDM) when the data is a discrete time sample of the diffusion process, the jumps follow a Laplace distribution, and the…
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for mixture models often results in slow or invalid convergence. The popular convergence proof affirms that the likelihood increases with Q; Q is increasing in the M -step and non-decreasing in…
We describe a novel approach to statistical learning from particles tracked while moving in a random environment. The problem consists in inferring properties of the environment from recorded snapshots. We consider here the case of a fluid…
We consider a continuous time Markov process on $\mathbb{N}_0$ which can be interpreted as generalized alternating birth-death process in a non-autonomous random environment. Depending on the status of the environment the process either…
Several demographic and health indicators, including the total fertility rate (TFR) and modern contraceptive use rate (mCPR), evolve similarly over time, characterized by a transition between stable states. Existing approaches for…
Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) have been used to formulate many decision-making problems in science and engineering. The objective is to synthesize the best decision (action selection) policies to maximize expected rewards (or minimize…
Expectation propagation (EP) is a powerful approximate inference algorithm. However, a critical barrier in applying EP is that the moment matching in message updates can be intractable. Handcrafting approximations is usually tricky, and…
The Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm is widely used to optimise non-convex likelihood functions with latent variables. Many authors modified its simple design to fit more specific situations. For instance, the Expectation (E) step…
The EM-algorithm is a general procedure to get maximum likelihood estimates if part of the observations on the variables of a network are missing. In this paper a stochastic version of the algorithm is adapted to probabilistic neural…
In many biological systems, chemical reactions or changes in a physical state are assumed to occur instantaneously. For describing the dynamics of those systems, Markov models that require exponentially distributed inter-event times have…
The asymptotic behavior of a stochastic network represented by a birth and death processes of particles on a compact state space is analyzed. Births: Particles are created at rate $\lambda_+$ and their location is independent of the current…
This article addresses the problem of efficient Bayesian inference in dynamic systems using particle methods and makes a number of contributions. First, we develop a correlated pseudo-marginal (CPM) approach for Bayesian inference in state…