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Markov chains are simple yet powerful mathematical structures to model temporally dependent processes. They generally assume stationary data, i.e., fixed transition probabilities between observations/states. However, live, real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-27 Kutalmış Coşkun , Borahan Tümer , Bjarne C. Hiller , Martin Becker

We develop a mixture procedure to monitor parallel streams of data for a change-point that affects only a subset of them, without assuming a spatial structure relating the data streams to one another. Observations are assumed initially to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-10 Yao Xie , David Siegmund

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

Change point analysis has applications in a wide variety of fields. The general problem concerns the inference of a change in distribution for a set of time-ordered observations. Sequential detection is an online version in which new data…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-16 David S. Matteson , Nicholas A. James

This paper studies the asymptotic behavior of processes with switching. More precisely, the stability under fast switching for diffusion processes and discrete state space Markovian processes is considered. The proofs are based on…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-07 Sören Christensen , Albrecht Irle

There is a lack of methodological results for continuous time change detection due to the challenges of noninformative prior specification and efficient posterior inference in this setting. Most methodologies to date assume data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Dan Cunha , Mark Friedl , Luis Carvalho

Changepoint models typically assume the data within each segment are independent and identically distributed conditional on some parameters which change across segments. This construction may be inadequate when data are subject to local…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-10 Karl L. Hallgren , Nicholas A. Heard , Niall M. Adams

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…

Computation · Statistics 2010-11-15 Jason Wyse , Nial Friel

Suppose that local characteristics of several independent compound Poisson and Wiener processes change suddenly and simultaneously at some unobservable disorder time. The problem is to detect the disorder time as quickly as possible after…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-04-01 Savas Dayanik , H. Vincent Poor , Semih O. Sezer

A method for the detection of changes in the expectation in univariate sequences is provided. Moving sum processes are studied. These rely on the selection of a tuning bandwidth. Here, a framework to overcome bandwidth selection is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-04 Tijana Levajkovic , Michael Messer

This paper proposes a moving sum methodology for detecting multiple change points in high-dimensional time series under a factor model, where changes are attributed to those in loadings as well as emergence or disappearance of factors. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Matteo Barigozzi , Haeran Cho , Lorenzo Trapani

This paper provides an overview of recent developments in quickest change detection (QCD) for high-dimensional multi-sensor systems, with an emphasis on settings involving structural constraints and limited sensing resources. Classical QCD…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Topi Halme , Visa Koivunen

This paper considers a simulation-based estimator for a general class of Markovian processes and explores some strong consistency properties of the estimator. The estimation problem is defined over a continuum of invariant distributions…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-14 Manuel S. Santos

In this paper we give a solution to the quickest drift change detection problem for a multivariate L\'evy process consisting of both continuous (Gaussian) and jump components in the Bayesian approach. We do it for a general 0-modified…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-22 Michał Krawiec , Zbigniew Palmowski

We consider the detection and localization of change points in the distribution of an offline sequence of observations. Based on a nonparametric framework that uses a similarity graph among observations, we propose new test statistics when…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-05 Lizhen Nie , Dan L. Nicolae

This paper investigates sequential change-point detection in reconfigurable sensor networks. In this problem, data from multiple sensors are observed sequentially. Each sensor can have a unique change point, and the data distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-10 Seungwon Lee , Yunxiao Chen , Xiaoou Li

Change point detection algorithms have numerous applications in fields of scientific and economic importance. We consider the problem of change point detection on compositional multivariate data (each sample is a probability mass function),…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-16 Prabuchandran K. J. , Nitin Singh , Pankaj Dayama , Vinayaka Pandit

A sensor network is considered where a sequence of random variables is observed at each sensor. At each time step, a processed version of the observations is transmitted from the sensors to a common node called the fusion center. At some…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-08-21 Taposh Banerjee , Venugopal. V. Veeravalli

This paper proposes an early detection method for cluster structural changes. Cluster structure refers to discrete structural characteristics, such as the number of clusters, when data are represented using finite mixture models, such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-28 Kento Urano , Ryo Yuki , Kenji Yamanishi

We study online change point detection for multivariate inhomogeneous Poisson point process time series. This setting arises commonly in applications such as earthquake seismology, climate monitoring, and epidemic surveillance, yet remains…