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The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

The boundary crossing probability of a Poisson process with $n$ jumps is a fundamental quantity with numerous applications. We present a fast $O(n^2 \log n)$ algorithm to calculate this probability for arbitrary upper and lower boundaries.

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-16 Amit Moscovich , Boaz Nadler

This paper presents a model of asymmetric bifurcating autoregressive process with random coefficients. We couple this model with a Galton Watson tree to take into account possibly missing observations. We propose least-squares estimators…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-18 Benoîte de Saporta , Anne Gégout-Petit , Laurence Marsalle

In this paper we provide an upper bound for the conjunction probability of independent Gaussian smooth processes and then we prove that this bound is a good approximation with exponentially smaller error. Our result confirms the heuristic…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Viet-Hung Pham

A family of random matrices $\boldsymbol{X}^N=(X_1^N,\ldots,X_d^N)$ is said to converge strongly to a family of bounded operators $\boldsymbol{x}=(x_1,\ldots,x_d)$ when $\|P(\boldsymbol{X}^N,\boldsymbol{X}^{N*})\|\to\|P(\boldsymbol{x},…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-09 Chi-Fang Chen , Jorge Garza-Vargas , Joel A. Tropp , Ramon van Handel

We consider equidistant approximations of stochastic integrals driven by H\"older continuous Gaussian processes of order $H>\frac12$ with discontinuous integrands involving bounded variation functions. We give exact rate of convergence in…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-15 Ehsan Azmoodeh , Pauliina Ilmonen , Nourhan Shafik , Tommi Sottinen , Lauri Viitasaari

Analytical work probability distributions for open classical systems are scarce; they can only be calculated in a few examples. In this work, I present a new method to derive such quantities for weakly driven processes in the overdamped…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-04-09 Pierre Nazé

Starting from the notion of multivariate fractional Brownian Motion introduced in [F. Lavancier, A. Philippe, and D. Surgailis. Covariance function of vector self-similar processes. Statistics & Probability Letters, 2009] we define a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-16 Ranieri Dugo , Giacomo Giorgio , Paolo Pigato

This paper is a step in the direction of understanding the behavior of non-intersecting Brownian motions on the real line, when the number of particles becomes large. Consider 2k non-intersecting Brownian motions, all starting at the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Mark Adler , Pierre van Moerbeke

This paper presents some general formulas for random partitions of a finite set derived by Kingman's model of random sampling from an interval partition generated by subintervals whose lengths are the points of a Poisson point process.…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jim Pitman

We obtain exponential moment asymptotics for the Bessel point process. As a direct consequence, we improve on the asymptotics for the expectation and variance of the associated counting function, and establish several central limit…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2021-05-11 Christophe Charlier

This paper investigates the propreties of the persistence diagrams stemming from almost surely continuous random processes on $[0,t]$. We focus our study on two variables which together characterize the barcode : the number of points of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-08 Daniel Perez

Asymptotics deviation probabilities of the sum S n = X 1 + $\times$ $\times$ $\times$ + X n of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables have been extensively investigated , in particular when X 1 is not…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-20 Thierry Klein , Agnès Lagnoux , Pierre Petit

We consider an empirical process based upon ratio of selected pair of the non-overlapping $m$-spacings generated by independent samples of arbitrary sizes. As a main result, we show that when both samples are uniformly distributed on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-09 Moïse Jérémie

We use the global stochastic analysis tools introduced by P. A. Meyer and L. Schwartz to write down a stochastic generalization of the Hamilton equations on a Poisson manifold that, for exact symplectic manifolds, are characterized by a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-10-08 Joan-Andreu Lázaro-Camí , Juan-Pablo Ortega

Motivated by the recent contribution \cite{BB17} we study the scaling limit behavior of a class of one-dimensional stochastic differential equations which has a unique attracting point subject to a small additional repulsive perturbation.…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2019-06-26 Martin Kolb , Matthias Liesenfeld

We study point processes on the real line whose configurations $X$ are locally finite, have a maximum and evolve through increments which are functions of correlated Gaussian variables. The correlations are intrinsic to the points and…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-26 Louis-Pierre Arguin , Michael Aizenman

We give a general Gaussian bound for the first chaos (or innovation) of point processes with stochastic intensity constructed by embedding in a bivariate Poisson process. We apply the general result to nonlinear Hawkes processes, providing…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-29 Giovanni Luca Torrisi

A mixed Gaussian fractional process $\{Y(t)\}_{t \in {\Bbb R}} = \{PX(t)\}_{t \in {\Bbb R}}$ is a multivariate stochastic process obtained by pre-multiplying a vector of independent, Gaussian fractional process entries $X$ by a nonsingular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-14 Patrice Abry , Gustavo Didier , Hui Li

We study approximations of the partition function of dense graphical models. Partition functions of graphical models play a fundamental role is statistical physics, in statistics and in machine learning. Two of the main methods for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-21 Vishesh Jain , Frederic Koehler , Elchanan Mossel
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