Related papers: A simplified Capital Asset Pricing Model
We consider a continuous-time financial market with an asset whose price is modeled by a linear stochastic differential equation with drift and volatility switching driven by a uniformly ergodic jump Markov process with a countable state…
The general problem of asset pricing when the discount rate differs from the rate at which an asset's cash flows accrue is considered. A pricing kernel framework is used to model an economy that is segmented into distinct markets, each…
We show, by studying in detail the market prices of options on liquid markets, that the market has empirically corrected the simple, but inadequate Black-Scholes formula to account for two important statistical features of asset…
A new model for the stock market price analysis is proposed. It is suggested to look at price as an everywhere discontinuous function of time of bounded variation.
In a stochastic volatility framework, we find a general pricing equation for the class of payoffs depending on the terminal value of a market asset and its final quadratic variation. This allows a pricing tool for European-style claims…
The paper develops a new class of financial market models. These models are based on generalized telegraph processes: Markov random flows with alternating velocities and jumps occurring when the velocities are switching. While such markets…
We introduce the Consensus-Bottleneck Asset Pricing Model (CB-APM), which embeds aggregate analyst consensus as a structural bottleneck, treating professional beliefs as a sufficient statistic for the market's high-dimensional information…
The CAPM regression is typically interpreted as if the market return contemporaneously \emph{causes} individual returns, motivating beta-neutral portfolios and factor attribution. For realized equity returns, however, this interpretation is…
We consider a generic market model with a single stock and with random volatility. We assume that there is a number of tradable options for that stock with different strike prices. The paper states the problem of finding a pricing rule that…
We model the dynamics of asset prices and associated derivatives by consideration of the dynamics of the conditional probability density process for the value of an asset at some specified time in the future. In the case where the price…
A simple Ising spin model which can describe the mechanism of price formation in financial markets is proposed. In contrast to other agent-based models, the influence does not flow inward from the surrounding neighbors to the center site,…
A financial market model with general semimartingale asset-price processes and where agents can only trade using no-short-sales strategies is considered. We show that wealth processes using continuous trading can be approximated very…
It is known that the probability is not a conserved quantity in the stock market, given the fact that it corresponds to an open system. In this paper we analyze the flow of probability in this system by expressing the ideal Black-Scholes…
Interest rate market models, like the LIBOR market model, have the advantage that the basic model quantities are directly observable in financial markets. Inflation market models extend this approach to inflation markets, where zero-coupon…
We introduce a simple and tractable methodology for estimating semiparametric conditional latent factor models. Our approach disentangles the roles of characteristics in capturing factor betas of asset returns from ``alpha.'' We construct…
A new model for the stock market price analysis is proposed. It is suggested to look at price as an everywhere discontinuous function of time of bounded variation.
The price of a stock will rarely follow the assumed model and a curious investor or a Regulatory Authority may wish to obtain a probability model the prices support. A risk neutral probability ${\cal P}^*$ for the stock's price at time $T$…
This paper refutes the claim that the expected rate of return of the underlying asset plays no role in the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing model.
We explore credit risk pricing by modeling equity as a call option and debt as the difference between the firm's asset value and a put option, following the structural framework of the Merton model. Our approach proceeds in two stages:…
We give a new predictive mathematical model for macroeconomics, which deals specifically with asset prices and earnings fluctuations, in the presence of a dynamic economy involving mergers, acquisitions, and hostile takeovers. Consider a…