Related papers: Change detection in INAR(p) processes against vari…
While many methods are available to detect structural changes in a time series, few procedures are available to quantify the uncertainty of these estimates post-detection. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a new framework to test…
Many time series exhibit changes both in level and in variability. Generally, it is more important to detect a change in the level, and changing or smoothly evolving variability can confound existing tests. This paper develops a framework…
We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…
The widespread use of machine learning algorithms calls for automatic change detection algorithms to monitor their behavior over time. As a machine learning algorithm learns from a continuous, possibly evolving, stream of data, it is…
An extension of the RINAR(1) process for modelling discrete-time dependent counting processes is considered. The model RINAR(p) investigated here is a direct and natural extension of the real AR(p) model. Compared to classical INAR(p)…
This paper proposes a new test for inequalities that are linear in possibly partially identified nuisance parameters. This type of hypothesis arises in a broad set of problems, including subvector inference for linear unconditional moment…
The aim of change-point detection is to identify behavioral shifts within time series data. This article focuses on scenarios where the data is derived from an inhomogeneous Poisson process or a marked Poisson process. We present a…
The purpose of this note is to present in details R codes to implement a non-parametric method for change-point detection. The proposed approach is validated from various perspectives using simulations. This method is a competitor to that…
Detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a time series, so-called changepoints, is important for many applications. However, many procedures rely on the estimation of nuisance parameters (like long-run variance). Under the alternative (a…
We consider a change-point detection problem for a simple class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). A continuous-time PDMP is observed in discrete time and through noise, and the aim is to propose a numerical method to…
This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach to detect changes in the variance of a Gaussian sequence model, focusing on quantifying the uncertainty in the change point locations and providing a scalable algorithm for inference. Such a…
This paper studies multivariate nonparametric change point localization and inference problems. The data consists of a multivariate time series with potentially short range dependence. The distribution of this data is assumed to be…
The cumulative sum (CUSUM) process is often used in change point analysis to detect changes in the mean of sequentially observed data. We provide a full description of the asymptotic distribution of $L^p, 1\leq p <\infty$, functionals of…
The problem of detecting anomalies in multiple processes is considered. We consider a composite hypothesis case, in which the measurements drawn when observing a process follow a common distribution with an unknown parameter (vector), whose…
We propose a framework for determining whether the causal dependence of an outcome $Y$ on a covariate $X$ changes at a given time point, given confounders $\boldsymbol{Z}$. For instance, in financial markets, the effect of a market…
We propose a test for a change in the mean for a sequence of functional observations that are only partially observed on subsets of the domain, with no information available on the complement. The framework accommodates important scenarios,…
We review recent developments in detecting and estimating multiple change-points in time series models with exogenous and endogenous regressors, panel data models, and factor models. This review differs from others in multiple ways: (1) it…
We consider estimation and inference in a linear model with endogenous regressors where the parameters of interest change across two samples. If the first-stage is common, we show how to use this information to obtain more efficient…
A simultaneous change-point detection and estimation in a piece-wise constant model is a common task in modern statistics. If, in addition, the whole estimation can be performed automatically, in just one single step without going through…
We describe our process for automatic detection of performance changes for a software product in the presence of noise. A large collection of tests run periodically as changes to our software product are committed to our source repository,…