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The goal of this paper is to go further in the analysis of the behavior of the number of descents in a random permutation. Via two different approaches relying on a suitable martingale decomposition or on the Irwin-Hall distribution, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-20 Bernard Bercu , Michel Bonnefont , Adrien Richou

We consider a single-server queue where interarrival and service times depend linearly and randomly on customer waiting times, and establish a sample-path moderate deviation principle (MDP) for the waiting time process. The waiting times…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-03 Chang Feng , John J. Hasenbein , Guodong Pang

In this paper we derive sharp lower and upper bounds for the covariance of two bounded random variables when knowledge about their expected values, variances or both is available. When only the expected values are known, our result can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-21 Ola Hössjer , Arvid Sjölander

This paper deals with U-statistics of Poisson processes and multiple Wiener-It\^o integrals on the Poisson space. Via sharp bounds on the cumulants for both classes of random variables, moderate deviation principles, concentration…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-13 Matthias Schulte , Christoph Thaele

In this paper, we investigate a stochastic approximation procedure $\left(X_n\right)_{n\ge 0}$ taking values in $R$. The process is adapted to a filtration $(F_n)_{n\ge 0}$ and satisfies the recursion…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Jianan Shi , Qing Yin , Yu Miao

Testing hypotheses of goodness-of-fit about mixture distributions on the basis of independent but not necessarily identically distributed random vectors is considered. The hypotheses are given by a specific distribution or by a family of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-21 Daniel Gaigall

Using martingale methods, we obtain some upper bounds for large and moderate deviations of products of independent and identically distributed elements of GL d (R). We investigate all the possible moment conditions, from super-exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-25 Christophe Cuny , Jérôme Dedecker , Florence Merlevède

This study developed a new statistical model and method for analyzing the precision of binary measurement methods from collaborative studies. The model is based on beta-binomial distributions. In other words, it assumes that the sensitivity…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-03 Jun-ichi Takeshita , Tomomichi Suzuki

In this paper, we modify the Bayes risk for the expectile, the so-called variantile risk measure, to better capture extreme risks. The modified risk measure is called the adjusted standard-deviatile. First, we derive the asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-12 Haoyu Chen , Tiantian Mao , Fan Yang

We study a variation of Bayesian M-ary hypothesis testing in which the test outputs a list of L candidates out of the M possible upon processing the observation. We study the minimum error probability of list hypothesis testing, where an…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Ehsan Asadi Kangarshahi , Albert Guillen i Fabregas

The randomized $p$-value, (nonrandomized) mid-$p$-value and abstract randomized $p$-value have all been recommended for testing a null hypothesis whenever the test statistic has a discrete distribution. This paper provides a unifying…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-02 Joshua D Habiger

We show that for local alternatives to uniformity which are determined by a sequence of square integrable densities the moderate deviation (MD) theorem for the corresponding Neyman-Pearson statistic does not hold in the full range for all…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-27 Tadeusz Inglot

Catoni proposed a robust M-estimator and gave the deviation inequality for one fixed test function. The present paper is devoted to the uniform concentration inequality for a family of test functions. As an application, we consider…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-18 Pengtao Li , Hanchao Wang

Binary classification is a task that involves the classification of data into one of two distinct classes. It is widely utilized in various fields. However, conventional classifiers tend to make overconfident predictions for data that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Shoma Yokura , Akihisa Ichiki

We derive explicit Bernstein-type and Bennett-type concentration inequalities for matrix-valued martingale processes with unbounded observations from the Hermitian space $\mathbb{H}(d)$. Specifically, we assume that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-21 Alexey Kroshnin , Alexandra Suvorikova

We consider difference equations with several non-monotone deviating arguments and nonnegative coefficients. The deviations (delays and advances) are, generally, unbounded. Sufficient oscillation conditions are obtained in an explicit…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-02-13 Elena Braverman , George E. Chatzarakis , Ioannis P. Stavroulakis

Moderate calibration, the expected event probability among observations with predicted probability z being equal to z, is a desired property of risk prediction models. Current graphical and numerical techniques for evaluating moderate…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-14 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , John Petkau

Testing for association or dependence between pairs of random variables is a fundamental problem in statistics. In some applications, data are subject to selection bias that causes dependence between observations even when it is absent from…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-13 Yaniv Tenzer , Micha Mandel , Or Zuk

We study moderate deviations from hydrodynamic limits of a reaction diffusion model. The process is defined as the superposition of the symmetric exclusion process with a Glauber dynamics. When the process starts from a product measure with…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Linjie Zhao

We study the weakly asymmetric simple exclusion process on the integer lattice. Under suitable constraints on the strength of the weak asymmetry of the dynamics, we prove moderate deviation principles for the fluctuation fields when the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Linjie Zhao