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We report on an empirical study of the main strategies for quantile regression in the context of stochastic computer experiments. To ensure adequate diversity, six metamodels are presented, divided into three categories based on order…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-22 Léonard Torossian , Victor Picheny , Robert Faivre , Aurélien Garivier

Estimating the unknown density from which a given independent sample originates is more difficult than estimating the mean, in the sense that for the best popular non-parametric density estimators, the mean integrated square error converges…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-08 Pierre L'Ecuyer , Florian Puchhammer , Amal Ben Abdellah

The information flow-based quantitative causality analysis has been widely applied in different disciplines because of its origin from first principles, its concise form, and its computational efficiency. So far the algorithm for its…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-03-08 X. San Liang

In this work a robust clustering algorithm for stationary time series is proposed. The algorithm is based on the use of estimated spectral densities, which are considered as functional data, as the basic characteristic of stationary time…

This paper examines the precision of estimators of Quantile-Based Risk Measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall, Spectral Risk Measures). It first addresses the question of how to estimate the precision of these estimators, and proposes…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-30 Kevin Dowd , John Cotter

This paper is written for a Festschrift in honour of Professor Marc Hallin and it proposes some developments on quantile regression. We connect our investigation to Marc's scientific production and we present some theoretical and…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-12 Manon Felix , Davide La Vecchia , Hang Liu , Yiming Ma

We propose a new framework for assessing Granger causality in quantiles in unstable environments, for a fixed quantile or over a continuum of quantile levels. Our proposed test statistics are consistent against fixed alternatives, they have…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-09 Alexander Mayer , Dominik Wied , Victor Troster

Contemporary scientific studies often rely on the understanding of complex quantum systems via computer simulation. This paper initiates the statistical study of quantum simulation and proposes a Monte Carlo method for estimating…

Applications · Statistics 2011-08-04 Yazhen Wang

Genetic studies often involve quantitative traits. Identifying genetic features that influence quantitative traits can help to uncover the etiology of diseases. Quantile regression method considers the conditional quantiles of the response…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-04 Qianchuan He , Linglong Kong , Yanhua Wang , Sijian Wang , Timothy A. Chan , Eric Holland

Quantile regression is an effective technique to quantify uncertainty, fit challenging underlying distributions, and often provide full probabilistic predictions through joint learnings over multiple quantile levels. A common drawback of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Youngsuk Park , Danielle Maddix , François-Xavier Aubet , Kelvin Kan , Jan Gasthaus , Yuyang Wang

Sequential Monte Carlo methods are a powerful framework for approximating the posterior distribution of a state variable in a sequential manner. They provide an attractive way of analyzing dynamic systems in real-time, taking into account…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-08-29 Dhorasso Temfack , Jason Wyse

The quantile-crossing spectrum is the spectrum of quantile-crossing processes created from a time series by the indicator function that shows whether or not the time series lies above or below a given quantile at a given time. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Ta-Hsin Li

We study an unbiased estimator for the density of a sum of random variables that are simulated from a computer model. A numerical study on examples with copula dependence is conducted where the proposed estimator performs favourably in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-19 Patrick J. Laub , Robert Salomone , Zdravko I. Botev

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-18 Rasool Fakoor , Taesup Kim , Jonas Mueller , Alexander J. Smola , Ryan J. Tibshirani

The spectral density of random graphs with topological constraints is analysed using the replica method. We consider graph ensembles featuring generalised degree-degree correlations, as well as those with a community structure. In each case…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2011-04-08 Tim Rogers , Conrad Pérez Vicente , Koujin Takeda , Isaac Pérez Castillo

Gaussian time-series models are often specified through their spectral density. Such models present several computational challenges, in particular because of the non-sparse nature of the covariance matrix. We derive a fast approximation of…

Computation · Statistics 2012-11-20 Nicolas Chopin , Judith Rousseau , Brunero Liseo

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for inferring how covariates affect specific percentiles of the response distribution. Existing methods either estimate conditional quantiles separately for each quantile of interest or estimate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-19 Joseph Feldman , Daniel Kowal

We apply the Average Spectrum Method to the problem of getting the excitation spectrum from imaginary-time quantum Monte Carlo simulations. We show that with high quality QMC data this method reproduces the dominant spectral features very…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2009-11-13 Olav F. Syljuasen

Quasi-stationary distributions (QSDs)arise from stochastic processes that exhibit transient equilibrium behaviour on the way to absorption QSDs are often mathematically intractable and even drawing samples from them is not straightforward.…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-18 Adam Griffin , Paul A. Jenkins , Gareth O. Roberts , Simon E. F. Spencer

We develop Monte Carlo methods for sampling random states and corresponding bit strings in qubit systems. To this end, we derive exact probability density functions that yield the Porter-Thomas distribution in the limit of large systems. We…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-09-05 Andreas Raab