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We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our results show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (Sequential)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-06 Joeri Hermans , Arnaud Delaunoy , François Rozet , Antoine Wehenkel , Volodimir Begy , Gilles Louppe

Chaotic systems pose fundamental challenges for data-driven dynamics discovery, as small modeling errors lead to exponentially growing trajectory discrepancies. Since exact long-term prediction is unattainable, it is natural to ask what a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Joon-Hyuk Ko , Andrus Giraldo , Deok-Sun Lee

The topology optimization of artificial neural networks can be particularly difficult if the fitness evaluations require expensive experiments or simulations. For that reason, the optimization methods may need to be supported by surrogate…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-07-23 Jörg Stork , Martin Zaefferer , Thomas Bartz-Beielstein

Surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms (SAEAs) hold significant importance in resolving expensive optimization problems~(EOPs). Extensive efforts have been devoted to improving the efficacy of SAEAs through the development of proficient…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Hao Hao , Xiaoqun Zhang , Aimin Zhou

We establish a formal connection between the decades-old surrogate outcome model in biostatistics and economics and the emerging field of prediction-powered inference (PPI). The connection treats predictions from pre-trained models,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Tijana Zrnic

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Shane A. McQuarrie , Anirban Chaudhuri , Karen E. Willcox , Mengwu Guo

The term `surrogate modeling' in computational science and engineering refers to the development of computationally efficient approximations for expensive simulations, such as those arising from numerical solution of partial differential…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-08-12 Maarten V. de Hoop , Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Elizabeth Qian , Andrew M. Stuart

Inferring causal effects on long-term outcomes using short-term surrogates is crucial to rapid innovation. However, even when treatments are randomized and surrogates fully mediate their effect on outcomes, it's possible that we get the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-09 Aurélien Bibaut , Nathan Kallus , Simon Ejdemyr , Michael Zhao

Many real-world systems are modelled using complex ordinary differential equations (ODEs). However, the dimensionality of these systems can make them challenging to analyze. Dimensionality reduction techniques like Proper Orthogonal…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Abhishek Ajayakumar , Soumyendu Raha

Developing surrogates for computer models has become increasingly important for addressing complex problems in science and engineering. This article introduces an artificial intelligent (AI) surrogate, referred to as the DeepSurrogate, for…

Going beyond correlations, the understanding and identification of causal relationships in observational time series, an important subfield of Causal Discovery, poses a major challenge. The lack of access to a well-defined ground truth for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-19 Andrew R. Lawrence , Marcus Kaiser , Rui Sampaio , Maksim Sipos

In this report we review modern nonlinearity methods that can be used in the preterm birth analysis. The nonlinear analysis of uterine contraction signals can provide information regarding physiological changes during the menstrual cycle…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2008-07-29 Tijana T. Ivancevic , Lakhmi C. Jain , John Pattison , Alex Hariz

A surrogate-based topology optimisation algorithm for linear elastic structures under parametric loads and boundary conditions is proposed. Instead of learning the parametric solution of the state (and adjoint) problems or the optimisation…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Matteo Giacomini , Antonio Huerta

Given the long follow-up periods that are often required for treatment or intervention studies, the potential to use surrogate markers to decrease the required follow-up time is a very attractive goal. However, previous studies have shown…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-12 Layla Parast , Tianxi Cai , Lu Tian

Multivariate time series analysis is extensively used in neurophysiology with the aim of studying the relationship between simultaneously recorded signals. Recently, advances on information theory and nonlinear dynamical systems theory have…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Ernesto Pereda , Rodrigo Quian Quiroga , Joydeep Bhattacharya

By definition, outliers are rarely observed in reality, making them difficult to detect or analyse. Artificial outliers approximate such genuine outliers and can, for instance, help with the detection of genuine outliers or with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-07 Georg Steinbuss , Klemens Böhm

It has been observed that machine learning algorithms exhibit biased predictions against certain population groups. To mitigate such bias while achieving comparable accuracy, a promising approach is to introduce surrogate functions of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-10 Wei Yao , Zhanke Zhou , Zhicong Li , Bo Han , Yong Liu

Surrogate modeling of non-linear oscillator networks remains challenging due to discrepancies between simplified analytical models and real-world complexity. To bridge this gap, we investigate hybrid reservoir computing, combining reservoir…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-20 Andrew Shannon , Conor Houghton , David Barton , Martin Homer

Explainable AI is a crucial component for edge services, as it ensures reliable decision making based on complex AI models. Surrogate models are a prominent approach of XAI where human-interpretable models, such as a linear regression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Foivos Charalampakos , Thomas Tsouparopoulos , Iordanis Koutsopoulos

Surrogate models have shown to be an extremely efficient aid in solving engineering problems that require repeated evaluations of an expensive computational model. They are built by sparsely evaluating the costly original model and have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-01 M. Moustapha , B. Sudret