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Statistical models used to estimate the spatio-temporal pattern in disease risk from areal unit data represent the risk surface for each time period with known covariates and a set of spatially smooth random effects. The latter act as a…

Applications · Statistics 2016-04-19 Alastair Rushworth , Duncan Lee , Christophe Sarran

The paper aims at developing the Bayesian seasonally cointegrated model for quarterly data. We propose the prior structure, derive the set of full conditional posterior distributions, and propose the sampling scheme. The identification of…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-06 Justyna Wróblewska

Both Bayesian and varying coefficient models are very useful tools in practice as they can be used to model parameter heterogeneity in a generalizable way. Motivated by the need of enhancing Marketing Mix Modeling at Uber, we propose a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-31 Edwin Ng , Zhishi Wang , Athena Dai

Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) are the workhorse in macroeconomic forecasting. Research in the last decade has established the importance of allowing time-varying volatility to capture both secular and cyclical variations in…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-24 Joshua Chan

We propose a Bayesian approach to detect multiple change-points in a piecewise-constant signal corrupted by a functional part corresponding to environmental or experimental disturbances. The piecewise constant part (also called segmentation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-23 Meili Baragatti , Karine Bertin , Emilie Lebarbier , Cristian Meza

Ranking, and inferences based on ranking of a set of entities, are important problems in numerous contexts. This is especially true in small area statistics where there may be only a limited amount of directly observed data from each entity…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-26 Snigdhansu Chatterjee , Gauri Sankar Datta , Yiren Hou , Abhyuday Mandal

Network data often exhibit block structures characterized by clusters of nodes with similar patterns of edge formation. When such relational data are complemented by additional information on exogenous node partitions, these sources of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-28 Sirio Legramanti , Tommaso Rigon , Daniele Durante

Random partition models are widely used in Bayesian methods for various clustering tasks, such as mixture models, topic models, and community detection problems. While the number of clusters induced by random partition models has been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Changwoo J. Lee , Huiyan Sang

Statistical research in real estate markets, particularly in understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of house prices, has garnered significant attention in recent times. Although Bayesian methods are common in spatio-temporal modeling,…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-24 Kapil Gupta , Soudeep Deb

Mass partition problems describe the partitions we can induce on a family of measures or finite sets of points in Euclidean spaces by dividing the ambient space into pieces. In this survey we describe recent progress in the area in addition…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2020-12-04 Edgardo Roldán-Pensado , Pablo Soberón

With the advancement of precision medicine there is an increasing need for design and analysis methods in clinical trials with the objective of investigating effect heterogeneity and estimating subgroup effects. As this requires precise…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Shirin Golchi , Satoshi Morita

This paper investigates the cross-correlations across multiple climate model errors. We build a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for the spatial dependence of individual models as well as cross-covariances across different climate…

Applications · Statistics 2012-03-02 Huiyan Sang , Mikyoung Jun , Jianhua Z. Huang

This paper introduces a novel framework to study default dependence and systemic risk in a financial network that evolves over time. We analyse several indicators of risk, and develop a new latent space model to assess the health of key…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-02 Laleh Tafakori , Armin Pourkhanali , Riccardo Rastelli

In this work we present full Bayesian inference for a new flexible nonseparable class of cross-covariance functions for multivariate spatial data. A Bayesian test is proposed for separability of covariance functions which is much more…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-24 Rafael S. Erbisti , Thais C. O. Fonseca , Mariane B. Alves

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-23 Haeran Cho , Hyeyoung Maeng , Idris A. Eckley , Paul Fearnhead

In many applications, it is of interest to study trends over time in relationships among categorical variables, such as age group, ethnicity, religious affiliation, political party and preference for particular policies. At each time point,…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-15 Tsuyoshi Kunihama , David B. Dunson

Among the main goals in multiple change point problems are the estimation of the number and positions of the change points, as well as the regime structure in the clusters induced by those changes. The product partition model (PPM) is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-11 Ricardo C. Pedroso , Rosangela H. Loschi , Fernando Andrés Quintana

Several problems in neuroimaging and beyond require inference on the parameters of multi-task sparse hierarchical regression models. Examples include M/EEG inverse problems, neural encoding models for task-based fMRI analyses, and climate…

This paper considers a structural-factor approach to modeling high-dimensional time series and space-time data by decomposing individual series into trend, seasonal, and irregular components. For ease in analyzing many time series, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-19 Zhaoxing Gao , Ruey S Tsay

Complex multivariate time series arise in many fields, ranging from computer vision to robotics or medicine. Often we are interested in the independent underlying factors that give rise to the high-dimensional data we are observing. While…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-11 Simon Bing , Vincent Fortuin , Gunnar Rätsch