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The progressive amplification of fluctuations in demand as the demand travels upstream the supply chains is known as the bullwhip effect. We first analytically characterize the bullwhip effect in general supply chain networks in two cases:…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-10 Jin-Zhu Yü , Chencheng Cai , Jianxi Gao

Supply chain management faces significant challenges, including demand fluctuations, inventory imbalances, and amplified upstream order variability due to the bullwhip effect. Traditional methods, such as simple moving averages, struggle to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Chunan Tong

Demand forecasting based on empirical data is a viable approach for optimizing a supply chain. However, in this approach, a model constructed from past data occasionally becomes outdated due to long-term changes in the environment, in which…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-09-07 Takahiro Ezaki , Naoto Imura , Katsuhiro Nishinari

Amplification and phase shift in ordering signals, commonly referred to as bullwhip, are responsible for both excessive strain on real world inventory management systems, stock outs, and unnecessary capital reservation though safety stock…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-28 James Paine

Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Dirk Helbing

In this article we want to review the research state on the bullwhip effect in supply chains with stochastic lead times and give a contribution to quantifying the bullwhip effect. We analyze the models quantifying the bullwhip effect in…

Applications · Statistics 2015-03-23 Zbigniew Michna , Peter Nielsen , Izabela Ewa Nielsen

Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Dirk Helbing

Due to delays in the adaptation of production or delivery rates, supply chains can be dynamically unstable with respect to perturbations in the consumption rate, which is known as "bull-whip effect". Here, we study several conceivable…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Takashi Nagatani , Dirk Helbing

The measure of the bullwhip effect, a phenomenon in which demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain, is a major issue in Supply Chain Management. Although it is simply defined (it is the ratio of the unconditional…

Applications · Statistics 2010-10-20 Marlene Silva Marchena

Supply chain management and inventory control provide most exciting examples of control systems with delays. Here, Smith predictors, model-free control and new time series forecasting techniques are mixed in order to derive an efficient…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2021-01-07 Koussaila Hamiche , Michel Fliess , Cédric Join , Hassane Abouaïssa

Supply chain management (SCM) faces significant challenges like demand fluctuations and the bullwhip effect. Traditional methods and even state-of-the-art LLMs struggle with benchmarks like the Vending Machine Test, failing to handle SCM's…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Chunan Tong

Motivated by how forecast errors exacerbate order fluctuations in supply chains, we leverage robust feedback controller synthesis to characterize, compute, and minimize the worst-case order fluctuation experienced by an individual supply…

Emerging Technologies · Computer Science 2024-09-16 Sarah H. Q. Li , Florian Dörfler

The wastage of perishable items has led to significant health and economic crises, increasing business uncertainty and fluctuating customer demand. This issue is worsened by online food delivery services, where frequent and unpredictable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Tisha Ghosh

In this article we quantify the bullwhip effect (the variance amplification in replenishment orders) when demands and lead times are predicted in a simple two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. In recent research the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-30 Zbigniew Michna , Peter Nielsen

I study the role of industries' position in supply chains in shaping the transmission of final demand shocks. First, I use a novel shift-share design leveraging destination-specific final demand shocks and a new measure of destination…

General Economics · Economics 2025-04-08 Alessandro Ferrari

In the seminal paper Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect (Lee, et al. 1997, hereafter referred to as LPW), order batching is regarded as one of the four sources of the bullwhip effect. LPW proved that, in all cases…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-02 Hau Mike Ma , Jiazhen Huo

We study a supply chain consisting of production-inventory systems at several locations which are coupled by a common supplier. Demand of customers arrives at each production system according to a Poisson process and is lost if the local…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Sonja Otten

Supply networks require collaboration in a competitive environment. To achieve this, nodes in the network often form symbiotic relationships as they can be adversely effected by the closure of companies in the network, especially where…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2025-01-27 Wan Wang , Haiyan Wang , Adam J. Sobey

Supply chain management is an integrated approach for planning and controlling materials, information, and finances as they move in a process which begins from suppliers and ends with customers in forward approach. As distribution network…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-22 Mohammad Najjartabar Bisheh , Hamid Davoudpour , G. Reza nasiri

Supply chain network is critical to serving customers, so the most common practices are to determine the number, location, and capacity of facilities. But at the same time, uncertainties and risks must be taken into account in order to…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-01-19 Khadija Ait Mamoun , Lamia Hammadi , Abdessamad El Ballouti , Eduardo Souza De Cursi
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