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Using Greenwich and SOON sunspot group data during the period 1874 -- 2005, we find that the sums of the areas of the sunspot groups in $0^\circ$ -- $10^\circ$ latitude-interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval,…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-11-26 J. Javaraiah

We consider the statistical relationship between the growth rate of activity in the early phase of a solar cycle with its subsequent amplitude on the basis of four datasets of global activity indices (Wolf sunspot number, group sunspot…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-06-18 R. Cameron M. Schüssler

We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray data in…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-22 L. M. Winter , K. S. Balasubramaniam

A deep learning network, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network, is used in this work to predict whether the maximum flare class an active region (AR) will produce in the next 24 hours is class $\Gamma$. We considered $\Gamma$ are $\ge M$,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-05-27 Xiantong Wang , Yang Chen , Gabor Toth , Ward B. Manchester , Tamas I. Gombosi , Alfred O. Hero , Zhenbang Jiao , Hu Sun , Meng Jin , Yang Liu

We examine the temporal changes in both solar polar magnetic field (PMF) at latitudes $\ge$ $45^{\circ}$ and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU during solar cycles 21--24 with emphasis on the recent activity changes after July 2015,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-08-05 Susanta Kumar Bisoi , P. Janardhan , S. Ananthakrishnan

Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work, poloidal and toroidal magnetic field…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-02-19 Irina N. Kitiashvili

Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-10-07 Leif Svalgaard

Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems, such as human aerospace, satellite communication and navigation, deep space exploration, and related scientific research. Therefore, studying the long - term evolution trend…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-02-21 Peixin Luo , Baolin Tan

The main purpose of this study is the determination of solar minimum date of the new sunspot cycle No 24. It is provided by using of four types of mean daily data values for the period Jan 01. 2006 - Dec 31. 2009: (1) the solar radioindex…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2010-08-03 B. Komitov , P. Duchlev , K. Stoychev , M. Dechev , K. Koleva

Prediction of the solar cycle is challenging but essential because it drives space weather. Several predictions with varying amplitudes of the ongoing Cycle~25 have been made. We show that an aspect of the Waldmeier effect (WE2), i.e., a…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-05-24 Pawan Kumar , Akash Biswas , Bidya Binay Karak

With recent advances in the field of machine learning, the use of deep neural networks for time series forecasting has become more prevalent. The quasi-periodic nature of the solar cycle makes it a good candidate for applying time series…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-05-27 B. Benson , W. D. Pan , A. Prasad , G. A. Gary , Q. Hu

This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2010-03-23 David H. Hathaway

A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-03 Patrick L. Noble , Michael S. Wheatland

The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-05-26 Aleix Espuña-Fontcuberta , Saikat Chatterjee , Dhrubaditya Mitra , Dibyendu Nandy

The relationships between solar flare parameters (total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux) and sunspot activity (Rz) as well as those between geomagnetic activity (aa index) and the flare parameters can be well described by…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-03 Z. L. Du , H. N. Wang

Human living environment is influenced by intense solar activity. The solar activity exhibits periodicity and regularity. Although many deep-learning models are currently used for solar cycle prediction, most of them are based on a…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-03-04 Cui Zhao , Kun Liu , Shangbin Yang , Jinchao Xia , Jingxia Chen , Jie Ren , Shiyuan Liu , Fangyuan He

There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2016-06-07 Stefano Sello

Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-06-25 Manfred Schuessler

The original 110 year long 27-day Recurrence Index (original R27) was published more than forty years ago. That index, based on the autocorrelation of consecutive 27-day sets of the geomagnetic aa-index, is a measure of the cycle-to-cycle…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-01-07 H. H. Sargent

Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-11-26 Arnab Rai Choudhuri , Piyali Chatterjee , Jie Jiang