English
Related papers

Related papers: Causal modeling and inference for electricity mark…

200 papers

The interconnected European Electricity Markets see considerable cross-border trade between different countries. In conjunction with the structure and technical characteristics of the power grid and its operating rules, the corresponding…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-08-09 Mirko Schäfer , Fabian Hofmann , Hazem Abdel-Khalek , Anke Weidlich

We consider stochastic volatility models under parameter uncertainty and investigate how model derived prices of European options are affected. We let the pricing parameters evolve dynamically in time within a specified region, and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-12 Samuel N. Cohen , Martin Tegnér

We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) wholesale electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors…

General Economics · Economics 2022-09-01 Emanuel Kohlscheen , Richhild Moessner

Price-based demand response (PBDR) has recently been attributed great economic but also environmental potential. However, the determination of its short-term effects on carbon emissions requires the knowledge of marginal emission factors…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-11 Markus Fleschutz , Markus Bohlayer , Marco Braun , Gregor Henze , Michael D. Murphy

Hydroelectric power (hydropower) is unique in that it can function as both a conventional source of electricity and as backup storage (pumped hydroelectric storage) for providing energy in times of high demand on the grid. This study…

The topological structure of the power grid plays a key role in the reliable delivery of electricity and price settlement in the electricity market. Incorporation of new energy sources and loads into the grid over time has led to its…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-03-02 Deepjyoti Deka , Sriram Vishwanath

The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, underlying the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Rafal Weron

It is very vital for suppliers and distributors to predict the deregulated electricity prices for creating their bidding strategies in the competitive market area. Pre requirement of succeeding in this field, accurate and suitable…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-27 T. O. Benli

The increasing attention to environmental issues is forcing the implementation of novel energy models based on renewable sources, fundamentally changing the configuration of energy management and introducing new criticalities that are only…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-09-09 Mario Mureddu , Guido Caldarelli , Alessandro Chessa , Antonio Scala , Alfonso Damiano

A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-11-11 Jean-Francois Mercure , Pablo Salas

Motivated by the increasing integration among electricity markets, in this paper we propose two different methods to incorporate market integration in electricity price forecasting and to improve the predictive performance. First, we…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-12-08 Jesus Lago , Fjo De Ridder , Peter Vrancx , Bart De Schutter

The operation of power systems is affected by diverse technical, economic and social factors. Social behaviour determines load patterns, electricity markets regulate the generation and weather-dependent renewables introduce power…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-04 Johannes Kruse , Eike Cramer , Benjamin Schäfer , Dirk Witthaut

This paper focuses on price-based residential demand response implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices during DR events. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-18 Guido Cavraro , Andrey Bernstein , Emiliano Dall'Anese

Interconnecting price zones and remote renewable energy sources has emerged as a key solution to achieving climate goals. The objective of this work is to present a formulation that extends the base optimal power flow model with price zones…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-27 Bernardo Castro Valerio , Vinícius Albernaz Lacerda , Marc Cheah-Mañe , Pieter Gebraad , Oriol Gomis-Bellmunt

Accurate prediction of electricity day-ahead prices is essential in competitive electricity markets. Although stationary electricity-price forecasting techniques have received considerable attention, research on non-stationary methods is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Antonio Malpica-Morales , Miguel A. Duran-Olivencia , Serafim Kalliadasis

The European electricity market is based on large pricing zones with a uniform day-ahead price. The energy transition leads to changes in supply and demand and increasing redispatch costs. In an attempt to ensure efficient market clearing…

General Economics · Economics 2025-06-03 Johannes Knörr , Martin Bichler , Teodora Dobos

Reliable gas price forecasts are an essential information for gas and energy traders, for risk managers and also economists. However, ahead of the war in Ukraine Europe began to suffer from substantially increased and volatile gas prices…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Stephan Schlüter , Sven Pappert , Martin Neumann

A transition to renewable energy is needed to mitigate climate change. In Europe, this transition has been led by wind energy, which is one of the fastest growing energy sources. However, energy demand and production are sensitive to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-03-01 Paulina Tedesco , Alex Lenkoski , Hannah C. Bloomfield , Jana Sillmann

We propose a new model for electricity pricing based on the price cap principle. The particularity of the model is that the asset price is an exponential functional of a jump L\'evy process. This model can capture both mean reversion and…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-27 Martin Kegnenlezom , Patrice Takam Soh , Antoine-Marie Bogso , Yves Emvudu Wono

Estimating generation costs from observed electricity market data is essential for market simulation, strategic bidding, and system planning. To that end, we model the relationship between generation costs and production schedules with a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-10 Matthias Pirlet , Adrien Bolland , Alexandre Huynen , Quentin Louveaux , Gilles Louppe , Damien Ernst