Related papers: A framework for analyzing contagion in banking net…
Large scale networks delineating collective dynamics often exhibit cascading failures across nodes leading to a system-wide collapse. Prominent examples of such phenomena would include collapse on financial and economic networks.…
We contribute to the understanding of how systemic risk arises in a network of credit-interlinked agents. Motivated by empirical studies we formulate a network model which, despite its simplicity, depicts the nature of interbank markets…
Interbank deposits (loans and credits) are quite common in banking system all over the world. Such interbank co-operation is profitable for banks but it can also lead to collective financial failures. In this paper we introduce a new model…
Ideas, behaviors, and opinions spread through social networks. If the probability of spreading to a new individual is a non-linear function of the fraction of the individuals' affected neighbors, such a spreading process becomes a "complex…
This paper develops a continuous framework for analyzing financial contagion that incorporates both geographic proximity and interbank network linkages. The framework characterizes stress propagation through a master equation whose solution…
A characteristic property of networks is their ability to propagate influences, such as infectious diseases, behavioral changes, and failures. An especially important class of such contagious dynamics is that of cascading processes. These…
In our recent works, we developed a probabilistic framework for structural analysis in undirected networks. The key idea of that framework is to sample a network by a symmetric bivariate distribution and then use that bivariate distribution…
Cascades on random networks are typically analyzed by assuming they map onto percolation processes and then are solved using generating function formulations. This approach assumes that the network is infinite and weakly connected, yet…
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate…
Bootstrap percolation in (random) graphs is a contagion dynamics among a set of vertices with certain threshold levels. The process is started by a set of initially infected vertices, and an initially uninfected vertex with threshold $k$…
We consider propagation models that describe the spreading of an attribute, called "damage", through the nodes of a random network. In some systems, the average fraction of nodes that remain undamaged vanishes in the large system limit, a…
We study binary state dynamics on a network where each node acts in response to the average state of its neighborhood. Allowing varying amounts of stochasticity in both the network and node responses, we find different outcomes in random…
The recent financial crisis of 2008 and the 2011 indebtedness of Greece highlight the importance of understanding the structure of the global financial network. In this paper we set out to analyze and characterize this network, as captured…
We propose a novel Bayesian methodology which uses random walks for rapid inference of statistical properties of undirected networks with weighted or unweighted edges. Our formalism yields high-accuracy estimates of the probability…
This work proposes an augmented variant of DebtRank with uncertainty intervals as a method to investigate and assess systemic risk in financial networks, in a context of incomplete data. The algorithm is tested against a default contagion…
The increasing complexity of cascading risks in urban systems necessitates robust, data-driven frameworks to model interdependencies across multiple domains. This study presents a foundational Bayesian network-based approach for analyzing…
Complex networks represent the natural backbone to study epidemic processes in populations of interacting individuals. Such a modeling framework, however, is naturally limited to pairwise interactions, making it less suitable to properly…
Cascading failures constitute an important vulnerability of interconnected systems. Here we focus on the study of such failures on networks in which the connectivity of nodes is constrained by geographical distance. Specifically, we use…
One of the first steps in applications of statistical network analysis is frequently to produce summary charts of important features of the network. Many of these features take the form of sequences of graph statistics counting the number…
We consider a dynamical model of distress propagation on complex networks, which we apply to the study of financial contagion in networks of banks connected to each other by direct exposures. The model that we consider is an extension of…