Related papers: Notes on risk theory
We use Taylor's formula with Lagrange remainder to make a modern adaptation of Poisson's proof of a version of the fundamental theorem of calculus in the case when the integral is defined by Euler sums, that is Riemann sums with left (or…
This note presents a proof of P\'olya's random walk theorem using classical methods from special function theory and asymptotic analysis.
Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…
We describe the development of a new toolkit for data analysis. The analysis package is based on Bayes' Theorem, and is realized with the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo. This gives access to the full posterior probability distribution.…
The classical Poisson theorem says that if $\xi_1,\xi_2,...$ are i.i.d. 0--1 Bernoulli random variables taking on 1 with probability $p_n\equiv \la/n$ then the sum $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^n\xi_i$ is asymptotically in $n$ Poisson distributed with…
In this paper we deal with the classical problem of random cover times. We investigate the distribution of the time it takes for a Poisson process of cylinders to cover a set $A \subset \mathbb{R}^d.$ This Poisson process of cylinders is…
These are lecture notes written at the University of Zurich during spring 2014 and spring 2015. The first part of the notes gives an introduction to probability theory. It explains the notion of random events and random variables,…
In this note, we give an alternate proof of the multinomial theorem using a probabilistic approach. Although the multinomial theorem is basically a combinatorial result, our proof may be simpler for a student familiar with only basic…
Testing hypotheses is an issue of primary importance in the scientific research, as well as in many other human activities. Much clarification about it can be achieved if the process of learning from data is framed in a stochastic model of…
Classically, risk is characterized by a point value probability indicating the likelihood of occurrence of an adverse effect. However, there are domains where the attainability of objective numerical risk characterizations is increasingly…
The dynamical likelihood method for analysis of high energy collider events is reformulated. The method is to reconstruct the elementary parton state from observed quantities. The basic assumption is that each of final state partons…
We prove an analogue of the classical ballot theorem that holds for any random walk in the range of attraction of the normal distribution. Our result is best possible: we exhibit examples demonstrating that if any of our hypotheses are…
Changing time of simple continuous-time Markov counting processes by independent unit-rate Poisson processes results in Markov counting processes for which we provide closed-form transition rates via composition of trajectories and with…
We defend a new theory of statistical evidence, which we call Robust Bayesianism (RB). We prove that, under widely accepted assumptions, RB entails the law of likelihood [Royall, 1997], the likelihood principle [Berger and Wolpert, 1988],…
We generate the fractional Poisson process by subordinating the standard Poisson process to the inverse stable subordinator. Our analysis is based on application of the Laplace transform with respect to both arguments of the evolving…
Poisson shot noise processes are natural generalizations of compound Poisson processes that have been widely applied in insurance, neuroscience, seismology, computer science and epidemiology. In this paper we study sharp deviations,…
This paper studies the properties of the Multiply Iterated Poisson Process (MIPP), a stochastic process constructed by repeatedly time-changing a Poisson process, and its applications in ruin theory. Like standard Poisson processes, MIPPs…
The event of large losses plays an important role in credit risk. As these large losses are typically rare, and portfolios usually consist of a large number of positions, large deviation theory is the natural tool to analyze the tail…
The standard method for the propagation of errors, based on a Taylor series expansion, is approximate and frequently inadequate for realistic problems. A simple and generic technique is described in which the likelihood is constructed…
We develop a likelihood methodology which can be used to search for evidence of burst repetition in the BATSE catalog, and to study the properties of the repetition signal. We use a simplified model of burst repetition in which a number…