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Modelling extreme events and heavy-tailed phenomena is central to building reliable predictive systems in domains such as finance, climate science, and safety-critical AI. While L\'evy processes provide a natural mathematical framework for…
A step reinforced random walk is a discrete time process with memory such that at each time step, with fixed probability $p \in (0,1)$, it repeats a previously performed step chosen uniformly at random while with complementary probability…
We study optimal Markovian couplings of Markov processes, where the optimality is understood in terms of minimization of concave transport costs between the time-marginal distributions of the coupled processes. We provide explicit…
Memory effects, sometimes, can not be neglected. In the framework of continuous time random walk, memory effect is modeled by the correlated waiting times. In this paper, we derive the two-point probability distribution of the stochastic…
Path-wise observables--functionals of stochastic trajectories--are at the heart of time-average statistical mechanics and are central to thermodynamic inequalities such as uncertainty relations, speed limits, and correlation-bounds. They…
Statistical inference for stochastic processes based on high-frequency observations has been an active research area for more than a decade. One of the most well-known and widely studied problems is that of estimation of the quadratic…
In recent times empirical likelihood has been widely applied under Bayesian framework. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are frequently employed to sample from the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest. However,…
This work introduces and studies a new family of velocity jump Markov processes directly amenable to exact simulation with the following two properties: i) trajectories converge in law when a time-step parameter vanishes towards a given…
Proposals for Metropolis-Hastings MCMC derived by discretizing Langevin diffusion or Hamiltonian dynamics are examples of stochastic autoregressive proposals that form a natural wider class of proposals with equivalent computability. We…
Diffusions are a fundamental class of models in many fields, including finance, engineering, and biology. Simulating diffusions is challenging as their sample paths are infinite-dimensional and their transition functions are typically…
In this paper, we introduce a new approach for integrating score-based models with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. While traditional score-based diffusion models excel in accurately learning the score function from data points, they lack…
We formulate gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling as optimization on the space of probability measures, with Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as the objective functional. We show that an underdamped form of the Langevin…
The velocity-jump model is a specific type of piecewise deterministic Markov process in which an individual's velocity is constant except at times that form the events of some point process. It represents an interpretable continuous-time…
In this paper we address the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions in stochastic kinetic models (SKMs). SKMs are multivariate Markov jump processes that model the interactions among species in…
When an unbiased estimator of the likelihood is used within a Metropolis--Hastings chain, it is necessary to trade off the number of Monte Carlo samples used to construct this estimator against the asymptotic variances of averages computed…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are frequently used in machine learning and statistics to construct powerful models. However, when employing GPs in practice, important considerations must be made, regarding the high computational burden,…
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for exponential family models with intractable normalizing constant, such as the exchange algorithm, require simulations of the sufficient statistics at every iteration of the Markov chain, which often…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been progressively incorporated within the statistician's toolbox as an alternative sampling method in settings when standard Metropolis-Hastings is inefficient. HMC generates a Markov chain on an augmented…
We consider versions of the Metropolis algorithm which avoid the inefficiency of rejections. We first illustrate that a natural Uniform Selection Algorithm might not converge to the correct distribution. We then analyse the use of Markov…
In a high-frequency context, we investigate the efficient estimation of scaling and jump activity parameters for a stochastic differential equation driven by a L{\'e}vy process with both diffusion component and pure-jump component. We first…