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We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation inference using a rescaled smooth Gaussian field as a prior for a multidimensional function. The rescaling is achieved using a Gamma variable and the procedure can be viewed as choosing an…
Bayesian methods are developed for the multivariate nonparametric regression problem where the domain is taken to be a compact Riemannian manifold. In terms of the latter, the underlying geometry of the manifold induces certain symmetries…
We develop a Bayesian median autoregressive (BayesMAR) model for time series forecasting. The proposed method utilizes time-varying quantile regression at the median, favorably inheriting the robustness of median regression in contrast to…
An autoregressive process with Markov regime is an autoregressive process for which the regression function at each time point is given by a nonobservable Markov chain. In this paper we consider the asymptotic properties of the maximum…
Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…
For estimating the unknown parameters in an unstable autoregressive AR(p), the paper proposes sequential least squares estimates with a special stopping time defined by the trace of the observed Fisher information matrix. The limiting…
In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…
Threshold autoregressive moving-average (TARMA) models are popular in time series analysis due to their ability to parsimoniously describe several complex dynamical features. However, neither theory nor estimation methods are currently…
We consider a resampling scheme for parameters estimates in nonlinear regression models. We provide an estimation procedure which recycles, via random weighting, the relevant parameters estimates to construct consistent estimates of the…
Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…
We develop a novel asymptotic theory for local polynomial extremum estimators of time-varying parameters in a broad class of nonlinear time series models. We show the proposed estimators are consistent and follow normal distributions in…
There is increasing interest in the problem of nonparametric regression with high-dimensional predictors. When the number of predictors $D$ is large, one encounters a daunting problem in attempting to estimate a $D$-dimensional surface…
In this paper, we study parametric nonlinear regression under the Harris recurrent Markov chain framework. We first consider the nonlinear least squares estimators of the parameters in the homoskedastic case, and establish asymptotic theory…
Bayesian nonparametric regression under a rescaled Gaussian process prior offers smoothness-adaptive function estimation with near minimax-optimal error rates. Hierarchical extensions of this approach, equipped with stochastic variable…
We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…
We study the asymptotic behavior of the least squares estimators of the unknown parameters of bifurcating autoregressive processes. Under very weak assumptions on the driven noise of the process, namely conditional pair-wise independence…
Motivated by a variety of applications, high-dimensional time series have become an active topic of research. In particular, several methods and finite-sample theories for individual stable autoregressive processes with known lag have…
An empirical Bayes approach to the estimation of possibly sparse sequences observed in Gaussian white noise is set out and investigated. The prior considered is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a heavy-tailed density \gamma,…
With regard to a three-step estimation procedure, proposed without theoretical discussion by Li and You in Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, for a nonparametric regression model with time-varying regression function, local…
This paper proposes a new estimation procedure for the ambiguity function of a non-stationary time series. The stochastic properties of the empirical ambiguity function calculated from a single sample in time are derived. Different…