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Suppose $N$ independent Bernoulli trials are observed sequentially at random times of a mixed binomial process. The task is to maximise, by using a nonanticipating stopping strategy, the probability of stopping at the last success. We focus…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-22 Alexander Gnedin , Zakaria Derbazi

In this work, we consider the almost-sure termination problem for probabilistic programs that asks whether a given probabilistic program terminates with probability 1. Scalable approaches for program analysis often rely on modularity as…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-08-13 Mingzhang Huang , Hongfei Fu , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Amir Kafshdar Goharshady

We provide a means of computing and estimating the asymptotic distributions of statistics based on an outer minimization of an inner maximization. Such test statistics, which arise frequently in moment models, are of special interest in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-17 Isaac Loh

We study optimal estimation when the likelihood may be misspecified. Building on tools from the theory of decision-making under uncertainty, we analyze a class of axiomatically grounded optimality criteria which nests several existing…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-28 Isaiah Andrews , Ricky Li , Yucheng Shang

In statistical classification and machine learning, classification error is an important performance measure, which is minimized by the Bayes decision rule. In practice, the unknown true distribution is usually replaced with a model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Zijian Yang , Vahe Eminyan , Ralf Schlüter , Hermann Ney

We propose an adaptive sequential framework for testing two simple hypotheses that analytically ensures finite exposure to the less effective treatment. Our proposed procedure employs a likelihood ratio-driven adaptive allocation rule,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-26 Sampurna Kundu , Jayant Jha , Subir Kumar Bhandari

Information-theoretic measures such as the entropy, cross-entropy and the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two mixture models is a core primitive in many signal processing tasks. Since the Kullback-Leibler divergence of mixtures provably…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-02-01 Frank Nielsen , Ke Sun

In this paper, we investigate the problem of semi-global minimal time robust stabilization of analytic control systems with controls entering linearly, by means of a hybrid state feedback law. It is shown that, in the absence of minimal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Christophe Prieur , Emmanuel Trélat

Linear Least Squares is a very well known technique for parameter estimation, which is used even when sub-optimal, because of its very low computational requirements and the fact that exact knowledge of the noise statistics is not required.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-16 Michael Krikheli , Amir Leshem

We study proximal random reshuffling for minimizing the sum of locally Lipschitz functions and a proper lower semicontinuous convex function without assuming coercivity or the existence of limit points. The algorithmic guarantees pertaining…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-15 Cedric Josz , Lexiao Lai , Xiaopeng Li

In theory, the probabilistic linkage method provides two distinct advantages over non-probabilistic methods, including minimal rates of linkage error and accurate measures of these rates for data users. However, implementations can fall…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-06 Abel Dasylva , Arthur Goussanou , David Ajavon , Hanan Abousaleh

Mixture models are regularly used in density estimation applications, but the problem of estimating the mixing distribution remains a challenge. Nonparametric maximum likelihood produce estimates of the mixing distribution that are…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-28 Minwoo Chae , Ryan Martin , Stephen G. Walker

Sequential monitoring in clinical trials is often employed to allow for early stopping and other interim decisions, while maintaining the type I error rate. However, sequential monitoring is typically described only in the context of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-29 Victoria Plamadeala , William F. Rosenberger

Blinded sample size re-estimation and information monitoring based on blinded data has been suggested to mitigate risks due to planning uncertainties regarding nuisance parameters. Motivated by a randomized controlled trial in pediatric…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-07 Tobias Mütze , Susanna Salem , Norbert Benda , Heinz Schmidli , Tim Friede

One-step ahead prediction for the multinomial model is considered. The performance of a predictive density is evaluated by the average Kullback-Leibler divergence from the true density to the predictive density. Asymptotic approximations of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-27 Fumiyasu Komaki

In this paper we give sufficient conditions guaranteeing the validity of the well-known minimax theorem for the lower Snell envelope with respect to a family of absolutely continuous probability measures. Such minimax results play an…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-30 Denis Belomestny , Volker Kraetschmer

The maximum entropy principle is a powerful tool for solving underdetermined inverse problems. This paper considers the problem of discretizing a continuous distribution, which arises in various applied fields. We obtain the approximating…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-05 Ken'ichiro Tanaka , Alexis Akira Toda

We study the (weak) equilibrium problem arising from the problem of optimally stopping a one-dimensional diffusion subject to an expectation constraint on the time until stopping. The weak equilibrium problem is realized with a set of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-14 Sören Christensen , Maike Klein , Boy Schultz

In this paper, we study the hypothesis testing problem of, among $n$ random variables, determining $k$ random variables which have different probability distributions from the rest $(n-k)$ random variables. Instead of using separate…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2013-05-28 Weiyu Xu , Lifeng Lai

Despite the rich existing literature about minimax optimization in continuous settings, only very partial results of this kind have been obtained for combinatorial settings. In this paper, we fill this gap by providing a characterization of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-29 Loay Mualem , Ethan R. Elenberg , Moran Feldman , Amin Karbasi