Related papers: A shape theorem for an epidemic model in dimension…
We consider a one-dimensional discrete-space birth process with a bounded number of particle per site. Under the assumptions of the finite range of interaction, translation invariance, and non-degeneracy, we prove a shape theorem. We also…
We introduce a new percolation model to describe and analyze the spread of an epidemic on a general directed and locally finite graph. We assign a two-dimensional random weight vector to each vertex of the graph in such a way that the…
Spatial models for spread of an epidemic may be mapped onto bond percolation. We point out that with disorder in the strength of contacts between individuals patchiness in the spread of the epidemic is very likely, and the criterion for…
We study two competing growth models. Each of these models describes the spread of a finite number of infections on a graph. Each infection evolves like an (oriented or unoriented) first passage percolation process except that once a vertex…
The shape of an epidemic wave in simple epidemic models applies to a homogeneous distribution of infected people in the population. In large inhomogeneous systems, at country-scale for instance, the wave shape is similar except for the…
In this work, we use a new approach to study the spread of an infectious disease. Indeed, we study a SIR epidemic model with variable infectivity, where the individuals are distributed over a compact subset $D$ of $\R^d$. We define…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
Random growth models are fundamental objects in modern probability theory, have given rise to new mathematics, and have numerous applications, including tumor growth and fluid flow in porous media. In this article, we introduce some of the…
Undulation of infection levels, usually called waves, are not well understood. In this paper we propose a mathematical model that exhibits undulation and decay towards a stable state. The model is a re-interpretation of the original…
We consider the following interacting particle system: There is a ``gas'' of particles, each of which performs a continuous time simple random walk on the d-dimensional lattice. These particles are called A-particles and move independently…
Infectious disease forecasting for ongoing epidemics has been traditionally performed, communicated, and evaluated as numerical targets - 1, 2, 3, and 4 week ahead cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. While there is great value in…
We study the contact process in a dynamical random environment defined on the vertices and edges of a graph. For a broad class of processes, we establish an asymptotic shape theorem for the set H_t, which represents the vertices that have…
We study a stochastic epidemic model with multiple patches (locations), where individuals in each patch are categorized into three compartments, Susceptible, Infected and Recovered/Removed, and may migrate from one patch to another in any…
We study the qualitative properties of a spatial diffusive heterogeneous SIR model, that appears in mathematical epidemiology to describe the spread of an infectious disease in a population. The model we consider consists in a system of…
We study a particular model of a random medium, called the orthant model, in general dimensions $d\ge 2$. Each site $x\in \Z^d$ independently has arrows pointing to its positive neighbours $x+e_i$, $i=1,\dots, d$ with probability $p$ and…
We introduce a model for the spreading of epidemics by long-range infections and investigate the critical behaviour at the spreading transition. The model generalizes directed bond percolation and is characterized by a probability…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
This work examines the discrete-time networked SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model, where the infection and recovery parameters may be time-varying. We provide a sufficient condition for the SIR model to converge to the set…
The non-equilibrium phase transition in models for epidemic spreading with long-range infections in combination with incubation times is investigated by field-theoretical and numerical methods. Here the spreading process is modelled by…
We propose a new model that describes the dynamics of epidemic spreading on connected graphs. Our model consists in a PDE-ODE system where at each vertex of the graph we have a standard SIR model and connexions between vertices are given by…