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This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probability that one event was a cause of another in a given scenario. Using structural-semantical definitions of the probabilities of necessary or sufficient causation (or both), we show…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

In social sciences and economics, causal inference traditionally focuses on assessing the impact of predefined treatments (or interventions) on predefined outcomes, such as the effect of education programs on earnings. Causal discovery, in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-12 Martin Huber

A notion of directed information between two continuous-time processes is proposed. A key component in the definition is taking an infimum over all possible partitions of the time interval, which plays a role no less significant than the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2012-11-01 Tsachy Weissman , Young-Han Kim , Haim H. Permuter

Educational systems have traditionally been evaluated using cross-sectional studies, namely, examining a pretest, posttest, and single intervention. Although this is a popular approach, it does not model valuable information such as…

Applications · Statistics 2021-08-03 Manie Tadayon , Greg Pottie

Characterising causal structure is an activity that is ubiquitous across the sciences. Causal models are representational devices that can be used as oracles for future interventions, to predict how values of some variables will change in…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-09-11 G. J. Milburn , Sally Shrapnel

The assumption that data samples are independent and identically distributed (iid) is standard in many areas of statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, in some settings, such as social networks, infectious disease modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-06 Eli Sherman , Ilya Shpitser

We consider the problem of learning causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) using combinations of observational and interventional experimental data. Current methods tailored to this setting assume that interventions either destroy…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-04 Alessandro Mascaro , Federico Castelletti

Dependency knowledge of the form "x is independent of y once z is known" invariably obeys the four graphoid axioms, examples include probabilistic and database dependencies. Often, such knowledge can be represented efficiently with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-10 Tom S. Verma , Judea Pearl

Information transfer between coupled stochastic dynamics, measured by transfer entropy and information flow, is suggested as a physical process underlying the causal relation of systems. While information transfer analysis has booming…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-04-29 Yang Tian , Hedong Hou , Yaoyuan Wang , Ziyang Zhang , Pei Sun

Causal discovery aims to infer causal relationships among variables from observational data, typically represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Most existing methods assume independent and identically distributed observations, an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

Causal DAGs(Directed Acyclic Graphs) are usually considered in a 2D plane. Edges indicate causal effects' directions and imply their corresponding time-passings. Due to the natural restriction of statistical models, effect estimation is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Jia Li , Xiang Li , Xiaowei Jia , Michael Steinbach , Vipin Kumar

Estimating a directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data represents a canonical learning problem and has generated a lot of interest in recent years. Research has focused mostly on the following two cases: when no information…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-15 Syed Rahman , Kshitij Khare , George Michailidis , Carlos Martinez , Juan Carulla

We develop terminology and methods for working with maximally oriented partially directed acyclic graphs (maximal PDAGs). Maximal PDAGs arise from imposing restrictions on a Markov equivalence class of directed acyclic graphs, or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-20 Emilija Perković , Markus Kalisch , Maloes H. Maathuis

The identification theory for causal effects in directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) with hidden variables is well established, but methods for estimating and inferring functionals that extend beyond the g-formula remain underdeveloped. Previous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-12 Anna Guo , Razieh Nabi

A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) process is a linear causal model for variables that evolve over a discrete set of time points and between which there may be lagged and instantaneous effects. The qualitative causal structure of an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-19 Nicolas-Domenic Reiter , Jonas Wahl , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-15 David Strieder , Tobias Freidling , Stefan Haffner , Mathias Drton

Causal diagrams based on do intervention are useful tools to formalize, process and understand causal relationship among variables. However, the do intervention has controversial interpretation of causal questions for non-manipulable…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Gong Heyang , Zhu Ke

Understanding the causal relationships between data variables can provide crucial insights into the construction of tabular datasets. Most existing causality learning methods typically focus on applying a single identifiable causal model,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Hristo Petkov , Calum MacLellan , Feng Dong

We propose a novel score-based approach to learning a directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data. We adapt a recently proposed continuous constrained optimization formulation to allow for nonlinear relationships between variables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-19 Sébastien Lachapelle , Philippe Brouillard , Tristan Deleu , Simon Lacoste-Julien

Mastering the dynamics of social influence requires separating, in a database of information propagation traces, the genuine causal processes from temporal correlation, i.e., homophily and other spurious causes. However, most studies to…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-08-31 Francesco Bonchi , Francesco Gullo , Bud Mishra , Daniele Ramazzotti