Related papers: A Life Expectancy Study based on the Deterioration…
In this study, we introduce a novel and comprehensive extension of a Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping model that explicitly accounts for gender-specific effects of meteorological exposures. Leveraging fine-scale weekly mortality and…
We use the illness-death model (IDM) for chronic conditions to derive a new analytical relation between the transition rates between the states of the IDM. The transition rates are the incidence rate (i) and the mortality rates of people…
In many cohorts (such as the UK Biobank) on which Mendelian Randomization studies are routinely performed, data on participants' longevity is inadequate as the majority of participants are still living. To nevertheless estimate effects on…
The unprecedented extension of the human lifespan necessitates a parallel evolution in how we quantify the quality of aging and its socioeconomic impact. Traditional metrics focusing on Healthspan (years free of disease) overlook the…
Insurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a…
Machine learning models that aim to predict dementia onset usually follow the classification methodology ignoring the time until an event happens. This study presents an alternative, using survival analysis within the context of machine…
Human life expectancy has dramatically improved over the course of the last century. Although this reflects a global improvement in sanitation and medical care, this also implies that more people suffer from diseases that typically manifest…
We study general stochastic birth and death processes including delay. We develop several approaches for the analytical treatment of these non-Markovian systems, valid, not only for constant delays, but also for stochastic delays with…
This article is a presentation of specific recent results describing scaling limits of individual-based models. Thanks to them, we wish to relate the time-scales typical of demographic dynamics and natural selection to the parameters of the…
We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…
A multi-scale methodology is developed in conjunction with a probabilistic fatigue lifetime model for structures with pores whose exact distribution, i.e. geometries and locations, is unknown. The method takes into account uncertainty in…
Mortality displacement is the concept that deaths are moved forward in time (e.g., a few days, several months, and years) by exposure from when they would occur without the exposure, which is common in environmental time-series studies.…
A demographic Allee effect occurs when individual fitness, at low densities, increases with population density. Coupled with environmental fluctuations in demographic rates, Allee effects can have subtle effects on population persistence…
In the field of cardio-thoracic surgery, valve function is monitored over time after surgery. The motivation for our research comes from a study which includes patients who received a human tissue valve in the aortic position. These…
The Healthy Life Years Lost Methodology (HLYL) is introduced to model and estimate the Health Expenditure in Japan in 2011. The HLYL theory and estimation methods are presented in our books in the Springer Series on Demographic Methods and…
Lithium-ion cells may experience rapid degradation in later life, especially with more extreme usage protocols. The onset of rapid degradation is called the `knee point', and forecasting it is important for the safe and economically viable…
At any moment in time, evolution is faced with a formidable challenge: refining the already highly optimised design of biological species, a feat accomplished through all preceding generations. In such a scenario, the impact of random…
We study supercritical age-structured branching models starting from a single particle with a random lifetime, where the reproduction law depends on the remaining lifetime of the parent. The lifespan of an individual is decided at its birth…
This article addresses the probabilistic nature of fatigue life in structures subjected to cyclic loading with variable amplitude. Drawing on the formalisation of Miner's cumulative damage rule that we introduced in the recent article…
The face is a rich source of information that can be utilized to infer a person's biological age, sex, phenotype, genetic defects, and health status. All of these factors are relevant for predicting an individual's remaining lifespan. In…